With the US August non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and recession fears temporarily alleviated, market focus has shifted entirely to inflation data. Chinese inflation, social financing and credit, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, Apple's autumn product launch, and the highly anticipated US August CPI are all set to be released in quick succession. Each set of data will reshape central bank policy expectations and disrupt the pricing of equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Investors need to be wary of increased volatility and prepare for risk management.

US stock markets are closed for Labor Day, while economic data from multiple countries kicks off the week.

On Monday (September 7th), the US celebrated Labor Day, and the New York Stock Exchange and two US futures exchanges were closed for the entire day. Trading in CME's precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts ended early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 8th, while stock index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 8th. ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts also ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 8th, leading to a temporary contraction in liquidity. Regarding economic data, China released its August foreign exchange reserves data, an important reference for observing cross-border capital flows; the Eurozone released its September Sentix investor confidence index and final Q2 GDP figures to assess the resilience of the Eurozone economy and provide a reference for subsequent ECB policies.

Japan's import and export figures are released, and US inflation expectations data are unveiled.

On Tuesday (September 8), Japan released its July import and export data, reflecting the strength of external demand in driving the Japanese economy. Later that evening, the US released the New York Fed's 1-3 year inflation forecasts for August. This indicator provides a direct view of residents' psychological inflation anchor and, in the current phase of inflation speculation, directly influences the market's pricing of the Fed's policies.

Domestic inflation data was released in a concentrated manner, with crude oil inventories and ADP employment data arriving simultaneously.

On Wednesday (September 9th), China will release its August PPI and CPI data, which will directly impact the pricing logic of domestic equities and commodities. Internationally, the US API will release its September crude oil inventory data, coupled with the weekly ADP employment report. This will guide short-term crude oil price trends and indirectly verify the true strength of the US private sector employment, providing a preliminary indication of the upcoming US CPI figures. The ECB's policy decision will be released, China's M2 social financing data will be published, and Apple's autumn product launch is approaching.

Thursday (September 10) is the trading day with the highest event density this week.

China released M2 and total social financing data, and the strength of credit will become a core benchmark for judging domestic real economic demand. The European Central Bank announced its September interest rate decision, with the market expecting a 25 basis point increase in the three key interest rates. Subsequent speeches by the ECB president will signal the future path of Eurozone monetary policy. In the US, the EIA released September crude oil inventories, 10-year Treasury auction results, August PPI, existing home sales, and initial and continuing jobless claims data, releasing multiple variables related to inflation, labor force, real estate, and bond supply. Apple held its fall product launch event early this morning, themed "A New Chapter, A Dazzling Start," which may disrupt sentiment in the technology sector.

The US CPI data, a major culmination of policy decisions, reveals the final piece of the Federal Reserve's policy puzzle.

Friday (September 11th) will see the biggest focus of the week – the US August CPI data. Following the explosive non-farm payrolls report, this inflation report will be the final piece of the puzzle in determining whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. Subsequently, the US will release the preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Consumer willingness and inflation expectations will further solidify or revise market judgments on the Fed's future path, and global asset volatility is expected to reach its highest point this week.

Risk warning: The triple risks of sticky inflation, policy shift, and event-driven disruptions are intertwined.

In a week packed with key data releases and policy announcements, investors need to pay close attention to four potential risks: 1. Unexpected CPI fluctuations amid strong non-farm payroll expectations: US employment data has demonstrated strong economic resilience. If CPI shows significant stickiness, the pressure for a Fed rate hike will rise rapidly, US Treasury yields are likely to rise again, and US stocks will face valuation correction pressure. Conversely, if inflation continues to cool, it will strengthen the trade in maintaining unchanged interest rates. 2. Policy signals after the ECB rate hike: The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate hike. The focus is not on the rate hike itself, but on the subsequent guidance released by the ECB. If a hawkish signal is released, the euro will strengthen rapidly, which will have a chain reaction on non-US currencies. 3. Expectations for domestic inflation and credit data: If CPI, PPI, and social financing are significantly lower or higher than market expectations, it will directly drive short-term market movements in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and domestic commodities.