On Friday (September 11), international oil prices corrected during the Asian and European sessions. WTI crude oil prices, which had surged over 7.5% on Thursday, are currently trading around 100.42, down about 3.5%. The US-Iran conflict, coupled with US escorts, alternative shipping routes in the Gulf region, the release of oil reserves by various countries, and reduced global oil demand, including refinery shortages leading to a squeeze on crude oil, all pointed to a tight balance with limited upside potential for oil prices. However, the recent escalation of clashes between the Houthis and the US has caused oil prices to climb rapidly in the short term. From a market sentiment perspective, Wednesday's accelerated rise and today's sharp correction have accelerated the clearing of both long and short positions. Buying at higher prices and short squeezes together pushed the short-term oil price increase to a peak in sentiment. Subsequently, as short squeezes and buying at higher prices exit with stop-loss orders and profit-taking occurs, the upward trend in oil prices is expected to pause temporarily.

The ongoing geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East is reshaping the global crude oil supply chain.

Since the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran in February 2026, the Middle East geopolitical conflict, initially planned for a short-term resolution, has entered a prolonged stalemate. The interim agreement reached in June quickly collapsed, with no subsequent diplomatic breakthroughs and a continued low-intensity maritime standoff. This power struggle surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has profoundly disrupted the global oil supply chain. Coupled with disturbances in the Red Sea and the restructuring of energy supply and demand, it has pushed international oil prices to a systematic upward shift. At the same time, the market is gradually absorbing geopolitical risks through shipping substitution, capacity allocation, and policy hedging, forming a new supply and demand balance.

The US's strong sanctions safeguard shipping lanes, demonstrating significant effectiveness in geopolitical suppression.

In this round of competition, the United States demonstrated an extremely strong determination to advance its war and impose extreme sanctions. Through military deployments, maritime blockades, and precision strikes, it has completely reshaped the energy flow pattern of the Strait of Hormuz. In the early stages of the conflict, Iran, leveraging its geographical advantage in the strait, blocked shipping lanes, controlling one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas transport lifeline, thus gaining leverage in negotiations while maintaining daily crude oil exports of 1.85 million barrels. In response to Iran's geopolitical threat, the United States launched a comprehensive suppression strategy. On the one hand, it increased its military deployment in the Persian Gulf, routinely escorting Gulf oil and gas transport fleets, directly breaking Iran's ability to blockade shipping lanes; on the other hand, it implemented a stringent maritime blockade and new sanctions, precisely targeting Iran's crude oil export lifeline. After a series of tough measures were implemented, the United States achieved significant results. Iranian crude oil exports suffered a precipitous decline. As of August 2026, Iran's daily crude oil exports plummeted to 255,000 barrels, with daily loading volume in the past 30 days reaching only 200,000 barrels, almost stagnant compared to pre-war levels. This directly accelerated Iran's economic downturn, exacerbating domestic price increases, long queues at gas stations, and other livelihood issues. Meanwhile, navigation capacity in the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly restored, and crude oil exports from Gulf countries have continued to recover. At the peak of the conflict, the average daily export volume of non-Iranian crude oil was only 300,000 barrels, but it surged to 8.4 million barrels in September. With the addition of alternative shipping routes, the total export volume reached 10.8 million barrels, recovering to more than two-thirds of pre-war levels, completely eroding Iran's initial geopolitical advantage. However, the prolonged high-intensity military deployment continues to drain US military resources; the war has already cost US taxpayers over $37.5 billion and resulted in 18 US military casualties, creating negative pressure on domestic public opinion and the midterm elections.

Iran employs both soft and hard countermeasures, upholding its bottom line in the game.

Faced with the United States' maximum pressure campaign, Iran has not compromised or backed down, but has instead adopted a dual strategy of military resistance and flexible policy adjustments to continue its counterattack. Militarily, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued to launch maritime confrontations, recently striking a US "Saildrone Explorer" surface unmanned surface vessel and capturing a US "Dive-LD" underwater drone at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. It has repeatedly warned of strikes against all "hostile presences" within the strait, while also continuing attacks on targets in Arab countries where US troops are stationed, resolutely refusing to compromise on core issues such as strait control, nuclear programs, and regional armed support. Furthermore, Iran has formally designated a controlled maritime zone covering the area around the southeastern port of Chabahar, the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and key waterways of the Strait of Hormuz. Ships entering without Iranian permission will face navigation restrictions and sanctions on port and insurance services, continuing to exploit the pain points of global energy shipping. At the policy level, Iran has made a phased tactical adjustment, announcing a temporary suspension of the collection of the 10% energy freight surcharge for foreign vessels. This is not a de-escalation of the conflict, but rather a flexible approach to alleviate short-term tensions in shipping lanes, stabilize the regional shipping base, and actively promote new energy transport routes to break free from the passive situation of being blocked by a single shipping lane. This will preserve strategic space for long-term confrontation, and the market is also continuously assessing the possibility of resuming the collection of the surcharge before the end of October.

Houthi forces exercised restraint and pressure; the situation in the Red Sea remained under control and shipping was not suspended.

As a core regional ally of Iran, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have recently accelerated their operations, introducing a significant variable into the US-Iran situation. The Houthis recently launched a series of attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Red Sea shipping, severely damaging the Jazan refinery and disrupting the European refined oil supply system. This caused Saudi crude oil shipments to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to plummet from an average of 3.4 million barrels per day in June to 128,000 barrels per day in August, before slightly recovering to 700,000 barrels per day in September, continuously disrupting the crucial Red Sea-Suez Canal trade route. However, the Houthi rebels have explicitly stated that international trade and navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain generally safe and unimpeded, and they have not resorted to the extreme measure of a complete closure of the waters. This approach both aligns with Iran's strategy of containing the US and preserves diplomatic and strategic room for maneuver, preventing the situation from spiraling out of control. It exhibits a strategic characteristic of "limited pressure, not a complete closure of the waters."

Restructuring the global shipping landscape and diversifying strategies to hedge geopolitical risks

The global energy shipping landscape has undergone a phased restructuring, forming a diversified system of "main channel restoration and alternative routes filling the gaps." While the Strait of Hormuz has not fully recovered to its pre-war full capacity, with traffic volume only at 10% of pre-war levels, commercial shipping has continued to recover under US escort, and the establishment of alternative routes by various countries has effectively offset the capacity gap in the main channels. Simultaneously, countries worldwide are continuously buffering geopolitical shocks by releasing strategic oil and gas reserves, adjusting energy demand, and allocating regional production capacity. However, energy risks have not subsided. Increased energy demand in the Northern Hemisphere during winter, the expansion of global AI infrastructure driving up electricity consumption, and the linked price increases of commodities such as fertilizers and grains continue to support high energy prices.

Oil prices have shifted upward, and the market is gradually reaching a new supply-demand balance.

Overall, the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has completely ended the low-price stability of the crude oil market. The central price level has systematically shifted upwards, with Brent crude oil breaking through $100 per barrel again, and refined oil prices such as diesel reaching record highs, continuously contributing to global inflationary pressures. However, with the implementation of shipping substitution, self-regulation of supply and demand, and policy counterbalancing in various countries, market panic is gradually subsiding, and the extreme unilateral price surge is unlikely to be sustainable. Against the backdrop of a prolonged geopolitical stalemate with no clear victor, the crude oil market has entered a new phase of high volatility, high premiums, and weak equilibrium, with supply and demand dynamically adapting and gradually moving towards a new stable equilibrium. At 16:45 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $99.98 per barrel.