The US will release its September non-farm payrolls report on October 2nd (Eastern Time). The market widely expects an increase of approximately 90,000 to 100,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising from 4.1% in August to 4.2%. This data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations and drive short-term asset volatility.

Employment may cool moderately, and the Fed's policy expectations will face repricing.

Looking at recent labor market indicators, JOLTS job openings decreased by 256,000 to 7.079 million in August, reflecting a cooling of corporate demand for labor, but layoffs remained at a low level of 1.641 million. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19th fell to 197,000, near a multi-decade low, indicating that companies have not yet begun large-scale layoffs. Therefore, the key to this non-farm payrolls report is not whether job growth slowed from 162,000 in August, but whether the slowdown exceeded expectations. If September's new job growth remains around 90,000 to 100,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1% to 4.2%, the market is more likely to view it as a normal cooling of the labor market rather than a clear deterioration in the US economy. Institutional forecasts are significantly divergent. Bank of America estimates September's new job growth may be only around 60,000, while most market forecasts are still close to 100,000. This means that if actual new job growth reaches more than 150,000 again, it will be significantly stronger than current expectations; conversely, if new job growth falls below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises further, it may strengthen market concerns about a slowdown in economic growth.

Federal Reserve Policy Path: Employment Resilience Determines Rate Hike Scope

Employment data is also a key factor in determining the Federal Reserve's next policy action. Inflation is currently well above the 2% long-term target; if employment continues to show resilience, the Fed will have greater policy space to control inflation. If September's non-farm payrolls increase significantly by more than 100,000, the unemployment rate remains low, and wage growth is robust, the market may further raise its expectations for subsequent Fed rate hikes. Conversely, if job growth significantly falls short of expectations, and the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% or higher, the necessity for the Fed to continue raising rates may decrease. New York Fed President Williams recently stated that after the previous policy tightening, the Fed does not need to rush into further action and can wait for more economic data.

Impact on the US dollar: Strong data supports the dollar, while weak data leaves room for a pullback.

For the US dollar, a significantly stronger-than-expected September non-farm payrolls report could provide continued support. Strong employment data suggests the US economy remains resilient and reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further. Furthermore, the interest rate differential between the US and other major economies may continue to support the dollar. However, if job growth falls to around 50,000 or even lower, while the unemployment rate rises, US Treasury yields and interest rate hike expectations may decline simultaneously, allowing the dollar room for a tactical pullback.

Impact on gold: Strong data suppresses prices, weak data boosts them.

For gold, if the non-farm payrolls data is significantly stronger than expected, rising expectations of a Fed rate hike could push up the dollar and US Treasury yields, continuing to suppress gold's performance. Gold prices could test $4100, or even further towards the $4000 level. Conversely, if job growth slows significantly and the market lowers its rate hike expectations, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to fall simultaneously, it would be beneficial for gold prices to rebound, potentially opening up room for a move towards $4400. If the data falls roughly within the expected range of 90,000 to 100,000, the subsequent trend of gold will need to be judged in conjunction with wage growth, the unemployment rate, and the market's repricing of the Fed's next meeting.

Summarize

Key takeaways from the September non-farm payrolls report include: market expectations of 90,000 to 100,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.2%; a decline in job openings but low layoffs at JOLTS, indicating a cooling rather than deteriorating labor market; and significant divergence in institutional forecasts, with Bank of America estimating only 60,000 jobs and most forecasting closer to 100,000. The Fed's policy path will depend on the resilience of the job market—strong data supports maintaining high interest rates or even further rate hikes, while weak data weakens the necessity for rate increases. For the US dollar, strong data provides support, while weak data leaves room for a pullback; for gold, strong data exerts downward pressure, while weak data provides upward support. If the data falls within the expected range, the subsequent movement of gold will need to be judged in conjunction with wages and the unemployment rate.