On Friday (October 2nd), data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job growth in September plummeted to 29,000, with August's figure revised down to 133,000 and July's figure further revised down by 31,000, resulting in a loss of 10,000 jobs and turning into negative growth. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September. This data will likely spark discussions in the market about whether the U.S. labor market is strong enough to support further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, spot gold rose 1.05%, surging $40 from $4181 to $4221, while the US dollar index fell by about 20 points, hitting a low of 101.85. The three major futures indices also saw short-term gains, with Nasdaq futures rising over 1%, and Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures rising nearly 1%. US Treasury yields fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield recently fell nearly 0.1 percentage point to 5.15%; the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to short-term interest rate expectations, also saw a similar decline. Swap contracts linked to the Fed meeting date indicate that the market is no longer fully pricing in a full rate hike this year. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 86.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 13.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 27.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 63.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 9.4%. Institutional Views Lindela Rosner, head of fixed income investments across multiple divisions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management , said the weak September jobs report makes a Fed rate hike later this month unlikely. She said today's weak data contradicts the view that the labor market is tightening again, and another rate hike in December remains the base case, but continued market pressure and rising energy prices could force the Fed to act. Allianz's chief economic advisor, El-Erian, said the US jobs data was surprising: only 29,000 jobs were added in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and hourly wages rose by only 0.1% month-over-month. Furthermore, the July and August figures were revised down by about 60,000 jobs. On the supply side, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%, a more positive development. Overall, this will further reinforce the impact of recent comments from Fed officials that market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October are cooling. (Updating…)