Nearly half of voters believe Trump is damaging the competitiveness of Republican candidates, with negative opinions outnumbering positive ones. Independent voters show the strongest negative sentiment, with 54% believing Trump has weakened the Republican Party's chances of winning. Even within the party, nearly 20% of Republicans agree he has dragged down the election, compared to a high 77% among Democratic voters, highlighting a significant partisan divide. This survey, with a sample size of over a thousand American adults, has a manageable margin of error and is considered highly representative. Overall, Trump's current approval rating is only 37%, while his disapproval rate is 60%. The majority of voters attribute potential Republican defeats to Trump rather than congressional leadership, indicating a highly personalized nature to this election, with voters focusing their votes on Trump's performance in office.

Trump's campaign stance and public opinion groundwork

Faced with sluggish poll numbers, Trump preemptively mitigated the damage by blaming potential defeats on insufficient grassroots mobilization within the Republican Party, deliberately distancing himself from internal party issues and preserving his personal reputation. Simultaneously, he made numerous trips to Republican states like Texas, Alabama, and Ohio, campaigning for party candidates and urging voters to see the election as a vote for themselves, attempting to leverage his base to bolster party votes. Even within the core Republican base, 19% of surveyed Republicans believed that Trump should bear primary responsibility for a potential election loss.

Inflation and people's livelihoods severely damage the Republican Party's reputation.

High oil prices, high commodity prices, high mortgage rates, and persistent inflation, coupled with the stalemate in the Iranian situation, have significantly worsened people's quality of life, becoming a core weapon for the Democrats to attack Trump. In a confidence poll on "improving household finances," 35% of voters chose the Democratic Party, and 29% chose the Republican Party, giving the Democrats a lead; another 29% of potential voters distrusted both parties, indicating weak overall approval ratings for Trump's administration. In the general vote in Congress, the Democrats lead the Republicans by 7.4 percentage points, but despite the pressure on people's livelihoods, Trump remains optimistic and predicts a landslide victory for the Republicans.

Trump's considerations and analysis of Iran, US stocks, and interest rates during the election.

Given Trump's governing style, studying his attitude towards the most critical issues in the current financial markets can provide valuable insights and lessons for daily trading. The Iran Issue: The Intrinsic Contradiction Between Hardline Diplomacy and Domestic Inflation From a fundamental perspective, the Strait of Hormuz is a core global oil transportation route. Geopolitical tensions directly disrupt energy supply, push up oil prices, and consequently lead to inflation across the United States. The situation with Iran is a classic double-edged sword for Trump: a tough stance in the short term can cultivate a strongman image and garner voter attention; however, escalating tensions will inevitably raise energy and living costs, directly impacting voters' most sensitive livelihood issues and negatively affecting the Republican Party's election prospects. Because the Middle East conflict has uncontrollable chain reactions, Trump cannot fully control the situation. Therefore, his policy towards Iran has always been in a state of flux: maintaining a pressure stance while reserving room for de-escalation, attempting to balance political image and livelihood pressures. Essentially , the Iran issue is no longer simply a diplomatic issue, but a key variable directly determining the level of US inflation and influencing the midterm election results.

US Stock Market Performance: The Pricing Game Between Geopolitical Risks and Policy Expectations

The underlying logic of US stock valuations is the discounted cash flow of companies' future earnings, which is primarily determined by two factors: earnings expectations and market interest rates. Geopolitical conflicts simultaneously disrupt both indicators in a two-way manner. Tensions in Iran push up oil prices, benefiting only the energy sector but increasing operating costs for most industries, including consumer goods, manufacturing, and aviation, thus suppressing overall corporate profits. Simultaneously, rising oil prices raise inflation expectations, forcing US Treasury yields upward and increasing the market discount rate, further compressing stock market valuations and weakening market risk appetite. US stocks do not fluctuate based on Trump's campaign rhetoric but rather price in geopolitical risks and election results in advance. If the Republicans lose power, the implementation of subsequent favorable policies such as tax cuts and relaxed regulations will be more difficult, further suppressing long-term earnings expectations for US stocks and amplifying market uncertainty. Interest Rate Trends: Rigid Inflation Constraints Outweigh Political Demands The underlying rules of interest rate policy are determined by the Federal Reserve's dual objectives of inflation and employment, possessing independence and not subject to interference from White House political demands. Trump subjectively prefers a low-interest-rate environment to lower financing costs, boost asset prices, and alleviate mortgage burdens for the public, aligning with his campaign interests. However, a strong logical conflict exists in reality: Trump's tough diplomacy towards Iran could easily drive up energy prices and exacerbate inflation, while high inflation would directly lock up the Federal Reserve's high-interest-rate policy, narrowing its room for interest rate cuts. This creates a typical policy backlash: Trump's tough diplomacy for the election campaign has instead fostered a high-inflation, high-interest-rate environment, dragging down the economy and stock market, increasing the burden on the public, and creating a negative cycle in the election.

Key takeaways:

Overall, the situation in Iran, the performance of the US stock market, and the interest rate cycle are deeply intertwined with the underlying logic of energy prices and inflation. Trump's campaign appeals, foreign policy strategies, and macroeconomic outcomes are inherently contradictory: his hardline Middle East policies have driven up inflation and interest rates, suppressed the stock market, and worsened people's livelihoods, ultimately reflecting negative voter turnout and being the fundamental reason for his weak poll numbers in this midterm election. The pressure in this election is not a short-term fluctuation in public opinion, but rather an inevitable result of the underlying macroeconomic mechanisms.