Gold prices rebounded sharply during the Asian and European sessions on Friday (October 9th), mainly due to the decline in US stocks and Trump's decision not to launch a war against Iran this month. Previous articles have consistently highlighted opportunities in gold; it remains to be seen whether readers capitalized on them. Currently, gold is trading around 4186. A clear trend in the market recently is the significant decline in 10-year US Treasury yields, which spurred a gold price rebound; however, 2-year US Treasury yields have remained virtually unchanged. In short, the market has not changed its assessment of the economy and Fed policy over the next year or two; it has only lowered its expectations for long-term US economic growth, i.e., the impact of non-inflationary factors. At the same time, Trump's reassurance of oil prices, the waning of safe-haven demand, and the strengthening of the euro have suppressed the dollar. Meanwhile, the weaker-than-expected OpenAI revenue, leading to a sharp drop in US stocks, has lowered expectations for US AI growth, resulting in lower interest rates.

Main theme: Cooling AI expectations dampen long-term economic growth projections.

The initial trigger came from OpenAI. Previously, the market optimistically predicted its annualized revenue would reach $70 billion, but the latest figure is only $50 billion. Annualized revenue is calculated based on the current revenue growth rate, not the actual full-year financial report. There are concerns that the commercialization of AI and the expansion of computing power demand are not progressing as quickly as previously imagined. The market had previously been optimistic that AI would significantly boost the long-term economic growth rate of the United States, but this expectation has cooled. Lowered long-term growth expectations will lead to lower yields on long-term Treasury bonds like the 10-year bond. However, short-term economic conditions are not significantly different, and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike and cut plans remain unchanged, so the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond, representing short-term policy, will fluctuate very little. Meanwhile, affected by global demand, Apple has also lowered its shipment forecast for the iPhone 18 Pro.

Supporting factors: Easing tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices moving in tandem with the US dollar.

The US's proactive easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced the risk of short-term war, lowering the likelihood of a rapid surge in oil prices. This easing of pressure on oil prices supports European economic expectations, strengthening the euro and causing the dollar index to fall. A weaker dollar also provides a respite for gold prices. Note: The Middle East easing is only a secondary factor, not the main driver of the recent decline in long-term US Treasury yields. A mere month of easing is unlikely to change the inflation situation over a ten-year timeframe. Gold itself does not generate interest; the biggest opportunity cost of holding gold is the 10-year real US Treasury yield (TIPS). The decline in long-term real yields lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold; coupled with a weaker dollar, this double positive factor has propelled a rebound in gold prices.

Going forward, gold prices will focus on two key variables.

AI Industry Growth Forecast: This corresponds to the market's assessment of long-term US economic growth. If expectations for AI commercialization and computing power capital expenditure continue to cool, long-term US Treasury yields are likely to remain under pressure, which is beneficial for gold. Conversely, if AI data exceeds expectations and long-term growth expectations recover, long-term US Treasury yields will rise, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Oil Price Forecast: The situation in the Middle East is only temporarily easing; the risk of conflict has not disappeared. If tensions escalate again and oil prices surge, the market will revert to trading based on stagflation logic, and the market's underlying logic will change. If oil prices remain stable, the dollar and gold prices will largely follow long-term real interest rates.

Summary and Technical Analysis:

The main theme is the cooling of AI expectations, which has lowered long-term growth expectations and driven down long-term US Treasury yields. Easing tensions in the Middle East have reduced the risk of a surge in oil prices, leading to a stronger euro and a weaker dollar, further supporting gold prices. Going forward for gold, the key factor will be whether there are any further negative developments in the AI industry. Attention should be paid to the changing trends in AI and US economic growth, as well as changes in oil prices. Technically, spot gold has found support at the bottom of its trading range, and the 5-day moving average has turned upwards. However, the head and shoulders pattern neckline and the bearish alignment of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages above act as resistance, limiting the upside potential for gold. (Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyTrade) At 17:28 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4187 per ounce.