Spot gold (XAU/USD) fell in Asian trading on Tuesday, trading around $4,160 per ounce, a significant pullback from the one-week high of around $4,217 reached in the previous session. Gold prices encountered profit-taking pressure after several days of rebound, with a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields being the main drags. A stronger US dollar is the core factor suppressing gold prices. The US dollar index has recently climbed to near an 18-month high, reaching around 101.28, a new eight-week high. The dollar's strength is supported by the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish signals. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammark have both recently emphasized that inflationary pressures remain stubborn and the Fed may need to raise interest rates further. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market's pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike in October has risen to approximately 67.5%, a significant increase from a week ago. The continued rise in US Treasury yields further amplifies the opportunity cost of holding gold. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.2%, a record high since 2007; the 30-year Treasury yield touched above 5.5%, the highest level since June 2004. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold's attractiveness decreases in an environment of rising real interest rates, which is the core logic behind the current pressure on gold prices. Inflation concerns stemming from the rebound in oil prices also indirectly put pressure on gold prices. WTI crude oil traded around $92, while Brent crude approached $100, with geopolitical risk premiums driving up energy prices. Although gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, rising oil prices and expectations of further central bank tightening have instead suppressed gold prices by pushing up real interest rates. Manav Modi, a commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, stated, "The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, and persistent inflationary pressures continue to make further tightening by the Federal Reserve possible, supporting US Treasury yields and maintaining pressure on real interest rates." However, strong demand has provided a floor for gold prices. Inflows into gold ETFs have reached a four-year high, indicating increased institutional investor appetite for gold. Furthermore, major Asian central banks increased their gold reserves by 740,000 ounces in September, extending their consecutive months of gold purchases to 23 months, and the global trend of central bank de-dollarization continues to provide structural support for gold demand. TD Securities strategists point out that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are covering their short positions in gold and platinum, with the covering reaching approximately 7% of their historical maximum holdings, reflecting a recovery in market confidence in the fundamentals of precious metals. The bank believes that geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, dollar depreciation, de-dollarization, and stagflation concerns remain the main factors supporting gold inflows, and expects gold to break free from the constraints of real interest rates, initiating a new bull market until 2027. From a technical perspective, the daily chart for spot gold presents a neutral to slightly bearish pattern. The price is trading below the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line ($4225) and the 100-day simple moving average ($4255), which constitute the main resistance levels above. The 14-day RSI reading is around 43.73, in the neutral to slightly bearish zone, not yet in oversold territory, indicating that downward pressure remains but has not yet become extreme. The lower Bollinger Band is located around $4055, forming a significant support level. If the price can break through $4255 with significant volume, it may challenge the upper Bollinger Band at $4400. Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold prices are oscillating between $4150 and $4230, with short-term moving averages intertwined, making the direction unclear. The MACD indicator is hovering below the zero line, with alternating red and green bars reflecting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. If the price can hold above $4200 and break through the $4225 resistance, the short-term rebound is likely to continue; conversely, if it breaks below the $4150 support, it may test the $4100 and even $4055 area. Editor's Summary: Spot gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between "pressure from a stronger dollar" and "support from demand." The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to strengthen, and US Treasury yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, posing major pressure on gold prices. However, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, continued gold purchases by global central banks, and short covering by CTAs provide bottom support for gold prices. Technically, prices are trading below key moving averages, and the RSI is neutral to weak, suggesting a short-term bias towards range-bound trading. Watch whether the $4150 support level holds; if it holds, a move towards the $4225-$4255 resistance zone is possible; a break below this level could lead to a pullback towards $4055. Close attention should be paid to the US September CPI data released this Wednesday, as it will be a crucial indicator of the Fed's interest rate path and will directly impact the short-term direction of gold prices.