Spot gold prices were pressured by both CPI and PPI data in the previous trading session, rising to $4,200 before falling sharply to close near $4,160. On Friday in Asian trading, gold prices stabilized, trading around $4,150. This rebound was mainly driven by the decline in US Treasury yields. Thursday's US PPI data also exceeded expectations, but market doubts about whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates for two consecutive months cooled expectations for an October rate hike. The 30-year US Treasury yield fell more than 8 basis points to 5.42%, the 10-year yield fell to 5.079%, and the 2-year yield fell more than 5 basis points to 4.745%. Lower yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, and the weakening US dollar index provided support for gold prices. Positive changes have emerged in the funding environment. TD Securities points out that CTA institutions are covering their short positions in precious metals, and this systemic short covering has helped gold find significant support in the $4,000 to $4,100/ounce range. Macro hedge fund holdings remain high, ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases remain strong, and these structural buying activities are building a medium- to long-term bottom for gold prices. However, the bank also cautions that macro speculative positions remain high, and if interest rates rebound or the dollar strengthens, gold prices will still face downward pressure. The Federal Reserve's internal policy stance remains hawkish. Cleveland Fed President Hamack delivered a hawkish speech on Thursday, emphasizing the risks of inflation impacting low-income groups, persistent input cost pressures, and the potential for entrenched inflation expectations, suggesting that rising price expectations would support more aggressive policy. She acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the neutral interest rate and that financial conditions do not appear sufficiently tight, reinforcing the inclination to "maintain high interest rates for a longer period." The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell 0.25 points to 127.92, a slight decline from recent highs, but still well above the neutral 100 level, confirming that the Fed's overall communication remains hawkish. Market focus shifts to Fed Chairman Warsh's speech later in the day. The CME FedWatch tool shows the market is still pricing in at least one more 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year, but the probability of an October rate hike has further decreased from 19% to 20%. If Warsh's speech is dovish, the dollar and Treasury yields may fall further, and gold prices could test $4200; if the speech is hawkish, gold prices may come under pressure again. From a technical perspective, gold maintains a downtrend on the daily chart, with the price trading below the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger Band middle line, and the overall bearish pattern remains unbroken. The RSI is around 45, below the neutral 50 but not in oversold territory, indicating weak buying interest and consolidation momentum, with no clear reversal signal yet. The first resistance level is at the psychological level of $4,200, which corresponds to the middle Bollinger Band. A break above this level could lead to a short-term rebound to $4,245, with stronger resistance at $4,370. On the downside, the first support level to watch is the $4,150 area, which corresponds to the recent low. A break below this level would likely lead to a test of $4,120, with stronger support at $4,035. Editor's Summary: Gold is currently positioned between short-term support from falling US Treasury yields and CTA short covering, and medium-term resistance from a hawkish Fed stance and the 100-day moving average. While the technical downtrend remains unresolved, a short-term rebound window has emerged. Tonight's speech by Fed Chairman Warsh will be a key variable—a dovish tone could see gold prices test the $4200-$4245 resistance zone; a hawkish tone or a dollar rebound could lead to a pullback to test support below $4120. Until $4200 is effectively broken, the overall structure will remain range-bound, but the risk of a technical rebound due to short covering should be monitored. Furthermore, next week's PCE data, developments in the Middle East, and central bank gold purchases will continue to influence the medium-term trend.