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[US Midterm Election Defeat Highlights the Political Damage of Inflation] ⑴ The Republican Party, led by President Trump, suffered a major setback in the midterm elections, with the Democrats winning both houses of Congress. The election results highlight the politically damaging power of inflation. ⑵ Trump's pre-election approval rating and economic confidence score were near historic lows, with the focus on his economic governance performance. Some consumer confidence indicators even fell to their lowest levels since records began in the 1950s. ⑶ US economic data itself was not weak. The annualized growth rate in the third quarter reached 3.4%, the stock market recently hit a record high, household net wealth was at a historical high, and the unemployment rate was only 4.2%. ⑷ However, inflation has been above the target level for nearly six consecutive years, continuously eroding household purchasing power. In the eyes of voters, Trump's tariff rhetoric and the war with Iran have turned price pressures into an unbearable cost of living crisis. ⑸ The inflationary impact of tariffs was supposed to begin to subside in early 2026, but after the outbreak of the war with Iran on February 28, energy prices soared. The average price of diesel in September exceeded $6.50 per gallon, and gasoline prices exceeded $5 per gallon in June. (6) American voters often make punitive choices regarding the incumbent president's party in midterm elections, but this result is seen as a decisive blow. (7) Since the outbreak of inflation following the pandemic and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the cost of living crisis in the United States has continued to escalate, becoming a key factor in Biden's failure to win re-election in 2024. Current inflation levels are already higher than in November 2024. (8) Unlike unemployment, inflation affects everyone, with low-income groups bearing the brunt of the pressure. When price increases exceed wage increases, workers' real income is effectively reduced. (9) A 2024 Harvard University study shows that a minority of people recognize the potential positive trade-offs of rising prices, and inflation is primarily associated with negative economic and social effects. (10) Some academic studies suggest that for every 1 percentage point increase in inflation, the probability of a president gaining positive approval rating decreases by 7 percentage points, while a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate corresponds to a 3 percentage point decrease. (11) Other studies have reached the opposite conclusion, arguing that unemployment has a greater negative impact on public well-being and daily mood than inflation, but the political choices of American voters in 2026 seem to contradict this assessment.