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2026-11-05 19:48:26
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview: New Jobs Expected to Rebound Moderately, Interest Rate Hike Path Pricing Faces Test] ⑴ The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October non-farm payrolls report on Friday (November 6th) Beijing time. The market expects an increase of 65,000 non-farm jobs, a significant rebound from 29,000 in September; the unemployment rate is expected to remain low at 4.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly earnings may rise from 0.1% to 0.3%. ⑵ Leading indicators release stabilizing signals: October ADP private sector employment increased by 86,000, higher than market expectations, with trade and transportation, education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality being the main drivers; JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million in September, with layoffs falling to a near two-year low, and initial jobless claims remaining near historical lows. (3) Market View: Current interest rate futures pricing suggest an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. A moderate jobs report (between 50,000 and 70,000 jobs) best reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" scenario, confirming the economy hasn't deteriorated without significantly increasing inflationary pressures. If new jobs significantly exceed 100,000 and wages accelerate, it will strengthen expectations of a rate hike and suppress tech stock valuations. (4) Institutional forecasts show significant divergence. Barclays expects only 50,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to slightly decrease to 4.1%, while some institutions anticipate around 100,000. Given that ADP and official non-farm payrolls have a long-term trend but fluctuate significantly monthly, a single report could exacerbate short-term disturbances to the dollar and gold prices.
