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2026-11-06 10:04:26
[Nomura expects October non-farm payrolls to rebound to 80,000, supporting the Fed's continued rate hike in December] (1) Nomura expects October's non-farm payrolls to rebound to 80,000 from 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate may fall slightly to 4.1%. (2) Nomura believes that last month's rise in the unemployment rate appears to be driven by unstable participation dynamics; at the same time, fundamentals continue to improve, layoffs remain low, and labor demand shows signs of stabilizing. (3) Nomura expects average hourly earnings to rebound to 0.3% month-on-month; the low reading in September appears to be below the underlying wage trend, and there is also a positive calendar effect in October. (4) Nomura says the labor market has shown resilience, but there are no signs of overheating yet. (5) Nomura expects results consistent with its forecasts to allow the Fed to continue raising interest rates in December.
