Next week, global markets will enter a period of high information density, with macroeconomic data, speeches by central bank officials from multiple countries, earnings reports and IPOs of major AI companies, and escalating geopolitical risks all converging. Interest rate expectations and the main theme of the AI bull market will face a concentrated test.

A list of key events for next week

On Monday, China released its total retail sales and industrial output figures. On Tuesday, US retail sales (the "dreaded data") and industrial production figures were released, with Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh and several FOMC voting members giving public speeches. Early Wednesday morning, Nvidia released its quarterly report, and EIA crude oil inventories, Eurozone and UK CPI, and US existing home sales were released simultaneously, with Williams, Lagarde, and Bailey giving speeches. On Thursday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting were released, Nvidia's interim CEO held an all-hands meeting, Anthropic launched its IPO, and several Federal Reserve and ECB officials continued to speak. On Friday, several FOMC voting members and ECB President Lagarde also spoke. In addition, the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting will be held in Shenzhen on November 18-19, and a number of leading US retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, will release their financial reports, further validating the fundamentals of consumer spending.

Main Theme 1: Geopolitical negotiations reach a stalemate, expectations of sticky inflation rise, and fears of high interest rates build up.

The primary trading theme in the current market is the expectation that geopolitical risks will continue to drive inflation for an extended period. Coupled with a series of statements from Federal Reserve officials next week, the expectation of high interest rates could trigger a sudden, impulsive shock. Following the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, a US envoy met with Putin in Moscow, but the inability to finalize a unified negotiating team within Europe has created significant cracks in the negotiation framework, making a substantial peace agreement unlikely in the short term. Regarding Iran, an IAEA report confirms Iran's continued refusal to cooperate with inspections, and the Iranian expert conference has publicly called for a review of its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the strengthening of its own deterrent. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have not eased. Continued uncertainty on the energy supply side makes oil prices more likely to rise than fall, prolonging the period of declining inflation. Previously, the US October CPI exceeded market expectations, fueling market expectations of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even restarting rate hikes. Next week's US retail sales data, the Fed meeting minutes, and a flurry of official speeches will continue to drive the debate around this logic: if retail consumption shows stronger-than-expected resilience, coupled with energy geopolitical premiums, the market will quickly raise its expectations for final interest rates, leading to higher US Treasury yields and suppressing overall risk assets, with high-valuation growth sectors facing the most significant pressure. This is the primary source of macroeconomic shocks to watch out for next week. Additionally, the US$350 billion defense budget coordination bill is still progressing, and its pace is noteworthy . Large investments in ammunition, homeland defense, key minerals, and AI autonomous systems will continue to provide thematic support for the defense and upstream computing power sectors, serving as supplementary clues to monitor.

Main Theme Two: The AI Bull Market Faces a Stress Test – Nvidia's Earnings Report and Anthropic's IPO are Two Key Tests

The core engine of this round of US stock market bull run is the expansion of AI computing power. Next week, the AI sector will face a concentrated test, with Nvidia's quarterly report and Anthropic's IPO serving as two major anchors for market sentiment. Jensen Huang's sudden resignation has already brought significant uncertainty to Nvidia, with the company's market capitalization falling significantly from its early October high. The market consensus expects its third-quarter revenue to reach $109 billion and profits to increase by 90% year-on-year. However, given the personnel turmoil, if performance or subsequent guidance falls short of expectations, the market's punishment will be amplified. Following closely behind, Anthropic listed on Nasdaq with a valuation of $1.4 trillion, raising a massive amount of funds. Its listing performance is a direct vote of confidence in the AI sector. If Anthropic's IPO price falls below its offering price and Nvidia's guidance is cautious, the previously crowded AI trading could easily see a concentrated profit-taking.

The core contradiction: the Federal Reserve's policy dilemma, with the AI industry's growth rate being a key variable.

The most compelling underlying contradiction in the market next week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with two conflicting logics at play: On the one hand, geopolitical energy premiums contribute to inflation stickiness, and strong consumer data would give the Fed reason to maintain a hawkish stance and retain the option to raise rates. On the other hand, if Nvidia's earnings report signals a slowdown in AI capital spending and a slowdown in data center expansion, it would suppress demand for capital goods, easing inflationary pressures to some extent. However, this would come at the cost of AI-heavy stocks leading to a correction in the broader US stock market, a spontaneous tightening of financial conditions, and an increased risk of recession. In short: a hawkish rate hike could directly puncture the AI bull market and trigger a deep market correction; a premature shift to a dovish stance risks inflation expectations derailing again. Next week, the market will focus on the Fed's statements on this contradictory issue in official speeches and meeting minutes, which is also the root cause of the repeated fluctuations in US Treasury bonds, US stocks, and foreign exchange. Other external clues: Eurozone and UK CPI data, along with domestic data, will provide cross-validation. The Eurozone and UK CPI will determine the pace of subsequent monetary policy by the ECB and the Bank of England, disrupting the euro, pound sterling, and global dollar liquidity.

Market Outlook and Risk Warning

Overall, market volatility is expected to rise significantly next week. Short-term focus will be on the risks of geopolitical inflation and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, followed by the sentiment feedback from AI earnings reports and IPOs. In the baseline scenario, sticky inflation expectations are unlikely to dissipate quickly, making interest rates more likely to rise than fall. However, if Nvidia provides weak guidance and Anthropic's IPO falls short of expectations, the negative feedback from the AI sector will act as a hedge, conversely limiting the Fed's hawkish stance, and the market will be repeatedly pulled between these two forces. In an environment of weak risk appetite, funds will temporarily avoid overvalued AI stocks, awaiting earnings and management guidance. In a scenario where geopolitical risks continue to escalate, safe-haven assets such as government bonds and the US dollar will receive temporary support.