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[US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates, Boosting Oil Prices and Pressures Gold Prices, Dropping Over 1.5% and Briefly Falling Below $4050] 1. During Monday's Asian session, spot gold fell as much as 1.8% to $4044 per ounce. The escalating US-Iran military conflict, with Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices up by over 5%, triggering renewed market concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, thus putting downward pressure on gold prices. 2. The US and Iran engaged in fierce missile and drone strikes over the weekend. Iran attacked US facilities along the Persian Gulf coast and announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices rose sharply, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and Asian stock markets generally came under pressure. The South Korean stock market briefly triggered a circuit breaker, closing down nearly 9%, SK Hynix fell 15.3%, and Samsung Electronics fell 10.7%. 3. Market analysts pointed out that gold would face pressure should conflict break out in the Gulf region. Rising oil prices have exacerbated market concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year. 4. This week, the market will closely watch Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's first semi-annual testimony to Congress, as well as key economic data such as June CPI, PPI, and retail sales. Speeches by other policymakers, including Vice Chairman Bowman and Governor Waller, will also be closely watched. 5. CME Group's FedWatch data shows that traders now expect a 72% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week. Regarding positioning, as of the week ending July 7, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 contracts.

[Survey shows French unemployment rate may rise to 8.2% in 2026, the highest level since 2019] (1) A survey of 16 economists conducted from July 3 to 8 shows that France's unemployment rate is expected to reach 8.2% in 2026. If true, this would be the highest level since 2019, once again raising concerns about the vulnerability of the Eurozone's second-largest economy. (2) Before the outbreak of the war with Iran, the French economy was already showing signs of weakness. In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate soared to its highest point in five years. (3) During the same period, France's GDP experienced its first quarterly negative growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, further exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian armed forces struck two ferries and a container ship in the port of Chernomorsk, which were transporting supplies for the Ukrainian armed forces. The attack damaged port infrastructure used for military cargo transport, including storage tanks.

[Iranian media releases "revenge list" involving 13 foreign dignitaries; Supreme Leader vows revenge for Khamenei] (1) An Iranian media outlet released a "revenge list" on the evening of July 11, listing 13 foreign dignitaries, including US President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, and Italy. However, there is no indication that the list has been officially recognized by the Iranian government. (2) On July 11, the social media account of Iran's current Supreme Leader Mojtaba issued a statement vowing to "avenge" the late Supreme Leader Khamenei and other victims of the two US-Israeli wars against Iran in June last year and February this year. (3) The statement emphasized that revenge is a national demand of Iran and will "inevitably" be carried out.

[Kuwait drastically lowers official crude oil prices for August, with a discount of $5/barrel to Asian markets] (1) Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) announced its August crude oil export pricing, significantly lowering prices in major markets, reflecting supply and demand changes under the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East. (2) The export crude oil price to the Asian market is set at a discount of $5/barrel to the benchmark crude oil, while in July the price was a premium of $5.25/barrel, a difference of $10.25; meanwhile, the price of Kuwait's ultra-light crude oil has remained unchanged from the export crude oil price for the fourth consecutive month. (3) The crude oil price to all regions of Europe was uniformly lowered by $6.45/barrel, with the Kuwaiti export crude oil price to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean region set at a discount of $6.05/barrel. (4) The export crude oil price to the US market was lowered by $8/barrel, with the FOB price set at a discount of $3.40/barrel. (5) Despite the continued suppression of overall crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf by the new round of strikes, some ships still transited the Strait of Hormuz along the shipping lanes near the coast of Oman and passed through by concealing their ship location information.

Ukrainian President Zelensky: Today, Russia once again "crushed" purely civilian targets: an ordinary passenger bus in Odessa, an ordinary residential building in Zaporizhzhia, and an ordinary hospital in the Kharkiv region. The Russian authorities have gone mad because of this war and have completely lost their rationality in refusing to end it. In the near future, meetings and negotiations aimed at strengthening defense capabilities will be held.