During the trading session on Tuesday (July 22), the price of U.S. crude oil fluctuated significantly, falling nearly 1% during the session. The price was at a relatively high level in the early trading session, then began to decline, and then rebounded to a certain extent.

Oil prices fell on July 22 as investors worried that Trump's tariff policy could weaken global fuel demand. New EU sanctions on Rosneft, including a ban on 105 "shadow fleets" from EU ports, had limited boost to oil prices as the market believed Russia could circumvent sanctions through other channels.

The crude oil market has lacked a clear direction since the ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24. Ebbing supply concerns in the Middle East and rising production from producers have limited the upside for oil prices. Brent and WTI have traded in a narrow range over the past few weeks.



Geopolitical risks

Recent data showed low global inventories during the peak summer demand period, supporting oil prices, but geopolitical uncertainties such as the situation in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could cause further volatility.

EU sanctions on Russia and Trump's tariff policy could weaken global fuel demand and push down oil prices. Bloomberg reported that crude oil prices rose slightly after the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia's energy industry, but analysts are skeptical about the effectiveness of the sanctions.

The market is paying attention to the new US sanctions on Russia (including lowering the price cap of Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel) and Trump's tariff policy, which may lead to increased concerns about global fuel demand and limit the upside of oil prices.

Reuters quoted Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi as saying that the actual impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply may be lower than expected, and oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of $65-70 per barrel in the short term.

Tariff risk

The market still expects crude oil prices to rise. Looking ahead, the August 1 tariff deadline may make the market more defensive, but Trump has a precedent of delaying deadlines or downplaying threats. Therefore, a positive outcome is more likely.

Risks to the bullish outlook include a new round of growth fears triggered by tariffs or a more hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations. In the longer term, crude oil prices could trade in a range of $60 to $90, but the path of least resistance remains biased to the upside.

Concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and Europe weighed on sentiment, with investors worried that growing tensions between the two major crude consumers would dampen economic activity and curb fuel demand growth.

Technical Analysis


(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)

From the daily chart, the crude oil sell-off after the end of the Israel-Iran conflict has stopped at the key support area around $64.00. Buyers continue to enter this area, setting risks clearly below the support level to continue to hit new highs. If sellers can push the price below this support level, it may start a deeper correction, with the next target looking at $55.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price recently rose to $69.00 before falling back to the support area. This range may become a new short-term range of fluctuations, and market participants may continue to buy at support and sell at resistance until a breakthrough occurs.