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2025-07-28 16:35:11
[Undercurrents in trade: Is the ECB's interest rate cut dilemma exacerbated?] ⑴?Deutsche Bank's viewpoint points out that the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union may reduce the need for the ECB to further cut interest rates. ⑵?Beijing time last weekend, the United States and the European Union reached an agreement to impose a 15% basic tariff on EU imports. ⑶?Analysts believe that if the agreement can reduce the uncertainty of the eurozone's trade policy, the pressure on the ECB to further cut interest rates will be reduced accordingly. ⑷?According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the eurozone money market currently expects that the probability of the ECB cutting interest rates in December this year is less than 60%. ⑸?The market's expectations for interest rate cuts in September or October are minimal. ⑹?This series of dynamics shows that in the complex international trade pattern, the ECB's monetary policy choices are facing new considerations. ⑺The market is paying close attention to the impact of the trade agreement on inflation and economic prospects, which has become the key to influencing its future interest rate decisions.
