Copper: Overnight, the main Shanghai copper price fluctuated and closed at 79,010 yuan, and the London copper price closed down at around 9,760 US dollars. Macro neutral. During the Sino-US trade talks, the European and American economic and trade agreement was waiting for the framework to be announced, and the market sentiment tended to be cautious. The US dollar rebounded weakly, and the copper price was under pressure and narrow. Fundamental neutral. Yesterday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,699 tons to 17,000 tons, and the LME copper destocking was 1,075 tons to 127,000 tons. The correction of copper prices improved downstream sentiment, but the inventory continued to rise under the supplement of domestic imports, and the spot premium was still under pressure to fall. Overall, the optimistic expectations have limited boost, and the cumulative inventory pressure brought by the US copper import tariffs and weak terminal demand, coupled with the impact of tariffs on non-US markets, the copper price has insufficient upward momentum for reorganization, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be weak. Today, the main operation range of Shanghai copper is 78,200-79,500 yuan/ton. In terms of strategy, wait-and-see or intraday range is the main.


Stock index options: In the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.44%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.96%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by 0.09%, the CSI 300 rose by 0.21%, the Shanghai 50 rose by 0.26%, the CSI 500 rose by 0.38%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.35%, and the Shenzhen 100ETF rose by 0.44%. The turnover of the two markets was 1742.307 billion yuan, a decrease of about 45 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the best performing industries are: defense and military industry (1.86%), non-bank financial (1.51%), and pharmaceutical and biological (1.47%). The worst performing industries are: transportation (-1.38%), steel (-1.41%), and coal (-2.6%). A shares have shown consolidation demand after continuous strength, and the stock index has fluctuated slightly in recent days. The recent strength of the stock index is mainly driven by policy support and loose funds: the "anti-involution" policy continues to ferment, coupled with the central bank's large-scale reverse repurchase to stabilize liquidity, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite. In the future, with the active efforts of domestic policies and the support of loose liquidity, incremental funds may drive the stock index's volatility center to move up. In terms of strategy, medium-term option covered call portfolios can continue to be held; in terms of volatility, the implied volatility has risen recently, and the volatility seller strategy should pay attention to position management in the short term.

Treasury bond futures: On Monday, Treasury bond futures rebounded. On the unilateral side, based on the closing price, the main 30-year contract rose 0.56%, the main 10-year contract rose 0.18%, the main 5-year contract rose 0.13%, and the main 2-year contract rose 0.04%. The yield of the active 30-year Treasury bond fell 2.45bp to 1.923%, the yield of the active 10-year bond fell 1.75bp to 1.715%, and the yield of the active 2-year bond fell 1.25bp to 1.4175%. In terms of futures inter-product spreads, 4TS-T, 2TF-T and 3T-TL changed by -0.056 yuan, 0.07 yuan and -0.06 yuan respectively. Unilateral strategy: As commodities weakened, futures bonds rebounded, and long bonds performed better. The expectation of demand recovery and supply tightening has not been disproven yet. It is difficult to say that the expectation of rising inflation has ended. Short-term sentiment may still fluctuate, but in the long run, inflation pressure is limited. The logic of long-term bond bull market has not changed. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity to buy TL on dips. Cross-product strategy: Policy disturbances will not change the preference of funds for long bonds, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts may cool down in the short term, which is not conducive to short bonds. Continue to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities for short and long. Hedging strategy: The basis has risen again recently, and we will pay attention to the strategy of replacing the current bond with futures long positions.

Coking coal: From July 27 to 28, a symposium on market supervision and development planning was held in Beijing. Focusing on high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the meeting proposed six key tasks: First, breaking down market barriers and rectifying inferior and low-price competition; second, promoting the construction of a quality power and improving the quality infrastructure; third, deepening standardization reform and improving the ability to supply standards; fourth, strengthening legal, credit-based and smart supervision; fifth, strengthening the supervision of food, drugs, industrial products and special equipment; and sixth, improving the normalized supervision mechanism for the platform economy and strengthening integrated online and offline supervision.

Coke: On July 28, a meeting of the national industrial and information technology authorities was held in Beijing to deploy key tasks for the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that the current industrial economy maintains a recovery trend, but still faces internal and external challenges. In the next stage, we must emphasize both stable growth and high-quality development, focus on key areas such as strengthening the supply chain, scientific and technological innovation, green and low-carbon, and digital transformation, promote the in-depth implementation of "artificial intelligence + manufacturing", rectify "involutionary" competition, and accelerate the withdrawal of backward production capacity. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen policy coordination and enterprise services, improve the gradient cultivation mechanism of high-quality enterprises, accelerate the preparation of the "15th Five-Year Plan", and continuously improve the industry's governance capabilities and core competitiveness.

Shanghai Lead: Shanghai Lead fluctuated strongly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of waste batteries, the high temperature in summer has limited the supply of recyclers, and the overall external quotation is relatively strong. On the supply side, there is not much room for change in the short-term operation of the original recycled lead enterprises, and there is not much news about the reduction and resumption of production in the market. In addition, affected by cost pressure, the short-term spot supply increase is not expected to be strong. On the demand side, the performance of terminal consumption turning to the peak season is not obvious for the time being, and the purchase of downstream battery companies in the short term remains rigid. Overall, the support on the raw material side is still strong, and attention should be paid to whether the peak season expectations can be fulfilled.

Shanghai zinc: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly overnight. On the macro level, New York copper was hit hard by the news of Chile's tariff exemption. The trade agreement reached by Europe and the United States has renewed uncertainty, and the macro sentiment is mixed. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, in terms of raw materials, near the end of the month, refineries and mines are negotiating next month's TC, and there may still be an increase of 50-100 under the game; according to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the supply of zinc ingots this week is still increasing month-on-month. On the demand side, the start-up is stable and upward under the rigid demand in the off-season, but the number of days for receiving orders has not increased. Yesterday, the cumulative increase in social warehouses increased, and the spot premium rebounded after the futures fell. Overall, there is still an expectation of cumulative increase in ingot inventory, and zinc prices are mainly under pressure.

Alumina: Overnight alumina 09 contract was weak and volatile, mainly because coking coal plunged sharply against the background of exchange position limit on Friday night, and the market driven by emotions cooled down. From the fundamental point of view, the supply of alumina continued to improve, and the operating capacity hit a new high of 94.95 million tons this year, and 1.6 million tons of capacity was released in August. The demand side remained stable, and the spot social inventory continued to grow. It has now returned to the same level as last year. The alumina 08 contract has been significantly higher than the spot for a long time, giving the industry an opportunity to arbitrage between futures and spot. Under the current loose spot situation, it is expected that the registered warehouse receipts will increase significantly in August. At that time, the 09 contract will face the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts and excess spot, and the price will fall easily and rise hard. The price of the 08 contract will gradually approach the spot price, and the disk structure is expected to return to cantango. There may be repeated sentiments in the short term, and the operation is still mainly rebound short selling.

Shanghai Aluminum: The United States and the European Union reached a 15% tariff agreement. At the same time, Trump said that he believed Powell was ready to start cutting interest rates. The U.S. Treasury yield hit a new low for the day. The market's concerns about tariffs have eased. The progress of the Sino-US tariff negotiations will be followed up. From a fundamental point of view, there are differences in the supply and demand of alumina spot between the north and the south, but the overall surplus is still small. It is expected that alumina will rebound weakly and the cost will be supported at a low level. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory accumulated 18,000 tons last week, mainly because the decline in the proportion of aluminum liquid in late July led to an increase in the amount of ingots cast, and the downstream fear of high prices was strong. On Friday, as the aluminum price fell back, the buying sentiment in the spot market eased, the spot premium and discount stabilized, and the aluminum price fluctuated at a high level in the short term.

Aluminum alloy: alloys fluctuated strongly overnight. On the macro level, New York copper was hit hard by the news of Chile's tariff exemption. The trade agreement reached by Europe and the United States has renewed uncertainty, and macro sentiment is mixed. From a fundamental perspective, on the cost side, Fubao's survey shows that the inventory of scrap aluminum has increased significantly month-on-month, the net retention rate has increased, and the silicon price has fallen, so short-term cost support is limited; on the supply and demand side, demand has declined and raw materials have been difficult to replenish, and the industry's operating rate under the Shanghai nonferrous caliber has continued to fall. Due to traders' advance purchase orders, factory warehouses continue to be destocked, and companies still have the sentiment to support prices. In terms of price spreads, ADC12-A00 narrowed slightly, recording -515 yuan; Jiangxi Baotai's spot price remained flat at 19,600. Overall, the short-term spot support has weakened, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, and alloys are mainly under pressure.

Rubber: At present, Thailand (northeast) and other places in the northern hemisphere are still in the seasonal rainy season, while southern Indonesia in the southern hemisphere is about to stop harvesting. Cote d'Ivoire is bidding farewell to the rainy season and ushering in the dry season. The weather in the main production areas of the world is still not too abnormal. The global supply from the perspective of total volume is in line with the weather and the growth law of rubber trees. From the demand side, the production activities of the domestic downstream tire industry have ushered in a rebound, and the overall inventory level has shown differentiation. In the past month or so, the improvement of the industry represented by destocking has been relatively limited. Therefore, the driving force of the balance sheet is still limited. In China, with the continuous introduction of policies on both the supply and demand sides, China's manufacturing and the Chinese economy have ushered in a dual recovery expectation. Under the circumstances of strong expectations for the domestic economy and no further deterioration of overseas market demand, the balance of total volume has ushered in improvement. Looking back, whether the actual demand side can match the current expectations is still highly uncertain, and it is expected that unilateral price fluctuations will be more severe in the future.

Rebar: Steel profits have improved, the average daily molten iron output is strong, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate remain high, and the fourth round of coke price increase has been implemented, which has provided certain support for the price of finished products. With the short-term market sentiment warming up, steel mills are mainly actively shipping, but terminal consumption is not satisfactory. Among the five major steel varieties, rebar production has increased significantly, but inventory has decreased by 46,200 tons month-on-month, and apparent demand has increased by 104,100 tons. The contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market is not significant in the short term, but due to the large increase in coking coal on the cost side last week, the market has experienced a systematic correction, volatility has increased significantly, and the rhythm has been repeated. The futures rebar passively follows, and it is expected to run weakly this week.

Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production decreased by 36,500 tons last week, with accumulated inventories reaching 22,500 tons, and apparent demand falling by 85,500 tons. While steel mills are reducing supply, inventory is accumulating, increasing pressure on fundamentals. Policy-driven volatility in coking coal is driving HRC prices to follow suit, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Strategically, a wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term.

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