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2025-07-29 18:10:45
The Calm Before the Storm? Alarm bells are ringing across the bond, stock, and foreign exchange markets! ⑴ Trading in the U.S. Treasury market is currently thin, with extremely low turnover. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, new bond issuance, and the release of key data. ⑵ The stock market rose slightly, signaling a busy corporate earnings season this week. ⑶ U.S. and Chinese officials resumed trade talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease tensions caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric. The two sides may reach an agreement on extending the tariff truce for another 90 days. ⑷ Japanese consumers' increased acceptance of price increases, coupled with three consecutive years of strong wage growth, are key to supporting Japan's rising price trend. ⑸ The Wall Street Journal notes that recent market signs of a bubble have emerged, with investors piling into risky assets such as meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and stocks of small, unprofitable companies. ⑹ The Trump administration is deviating from traditional debt management practices, with the U.S. Treasury hinting it will wait for lower interest rates before issuing more long-term debt. This timing strategy could backfire. ⑺ U.S. Federal Reserve officials are divided over when to resume rate cuts, with some leaning towards an immediate cut and others waiting for more data. ⑻ The European Central Bank's Staff Council wrote to ECB President Christine Lagarde, accusing her of failing to adhere to the rule of law in internal governance, raising concerns about the ECB's internal operations. ⑼ UBS Group has asked bankers to suspend promoting complex structured foreign exchange products to clients because Trump's tariff remarks have caused clients to suffer huge losses, raising concerns about sales practices and product suitability. ⑽ German and French leaders have criticized the long-awaited EU-US trade agreement, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warning that the agreement will cause "considerable damage" to the German, European and even U.S. economies and lead to higher inflation. ⑾ The Kremlin said it had noted Trump's statement on shortening the deadline for an agreement to end the Ukrainian conflict.
