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2025-07-29 18:54:46
[The Puzzle of the Dollar's Rebound: Why is the Options Market "Calm"?] ⑴ On July 29th, the foreign exchange options market, a leading indicator of future trends, revealed underlying signals for the recent dollar rebound. ⑵ In early 2025, bearish sentiment toward the dollar intensified, leading to a surge in demand for dollar put options. ⑶ Especially after Trump's tariff announcement, dollar put option premiums and implied volatility surged, suggesting the dollar could face even greater declines. ⑷ However, this demand for put options gradually faded as traders took profits and the summer market quiet arrived. ⑸ The recent dollar rebound, fueled by the US-EU trade agreement, prompted traders to further liquidate and reduce outdated bearish dollar positions. ⑹ Notably, demand for dollar call options has not seen a significant increase, and implied volatility continues to hover near its lowest level since April. ⑺ This shows that although the downside risk of the US dollar has decreased in the short term, the options market has not yet formed a strong belief in the continued recovery of the US dollar, indicating that the US dollar may show more range-bound fluctuations rather than unilateral breakthroughs.
