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2025-07-29 19:00:14
[Analysis of Trump's Trade Model: The "Numbers Game" of Investment Promises and Tariff Risks] ⑴ The Trump administration's trade strategy is taking on a new pattern, focusing not only on tariffs but also on purchase and investment promises. ⑵ However, the fulfillment of these promises has raised market concerns, similar to previous doubts about China's agricultural purchase commitments in the Phase One trade agreement. ⑶ The EU has pledged $600 billion in investments in the US, while Japan has made a similar $550 billion pledge, but analysts are generally skeptical of their fulfillment. ⑷ Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, believes there is a significant gap between the EU's investment promises and actual expectations, and estimates that actual investment may only be in the tens of billions of dollars. ⑸ Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, expressed skepticism about the EU's pledge to purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028, pointing out that this far exceeds Europe's actual needs. Last year, US fossil fuel exports to the EU were only $78 billion. ⑹ Analysts predict that small countries may face higher tariff risks in the future, and some products from Canada and Mexico that are not covered by existing agreements may also face tariff rates similar to those of Japan and the EU.
