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2025-07-29 19:46:29
[Job Market Weathervane: JOLTS Data May Reveal New Clues for a Fed Rate Cut!] ⑴ On July 29th, the market is closely watching the Bureau of Labor Statistics' upcoming June JOLTS job openings data, which is crucial for assessing the state of the US labor market. ⑵ The market generally expects job openings to decline slightly to 7.55 million in June, a key factor in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. ⑶ Although job openings have been steadily declining since peaking at 12 million in March 2022, they rose for two consecutive months in May of this year, reaching 7.76 million. ⑷ Even though trade agreements with Japan and the EU have eased recession fears, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to avoid easing monetary policy until the labor market deteriorates significantly. ⑸ The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has little expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates at its July 29-30 meeting. ⑹ However, if the JOLTS job openings data falls significantly below 7 million, it could increase expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the current probability of this happening at approximately 60%. ⑺ In this scenario, the US dollar could face immediate downward pressure. ⑻ Conversely, if the data meets or exceeds market expectations, the US dollar is expected to remain strong. ⑼ Regardless of the data, investors are likely to wait and see before the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday, and the data's impact on US dollar valuations may not be long-lasting.
