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2025-07-29 19:52:26
[OPEC+ Undercurrents: Expected Production Increases Impact Production Cut Agreement, Where Will the Oil Market Go?] ⑴ On July 29th, Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch noted that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) held its regular online meeting yesterday. ⑵ The press release from the meeting emphasized the importance of adhering to the OPEC+ production agreement and required countries that had previously overproduced to submit compensatory production cut plans by August 18th. ⑶ However, the JMMC did not provide new production recommendations, reducing its importance as production decision-making power has shifted to the eight OPEC+ countries that have voluntarily cut production. ⑷ Market participants and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg generally expect these countries to increase production by nearly 550,000 barrels per day in September. ⑸ This means the voluntary production cuts could be fully reversed a year earlier than originally scheduled. ⑹ The JMMC's importance is likely to regain momentum at its next meeting on October 1st, when the eight countries are expected to complete their production increases. ⑺ The next production decisions of these countries will be announced this weekend and the market is watching closely.
