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2025-07-29 20:03:05
Trump's Urgent Sanctions Order Against Russia: Oil Market Storm Impending, Global Supply Faces Severe Tests] ⑴ On July 29th, US President Trump unexpectedly shortened the deadline for the most severe sanctions on Russian oil exports, reducing the original 50 days to 10-12 days, sparking significant market concern. ⑵ If so-called secondary sanctions are implemented, 100% tariffs would be imposed on Russian oil buyers, a move that could severely disrupt global oil supplies. ⑶ International Energy Agency data shows that Russia exported 4.68 million barrels per day of crude oil in June, accounting for approximately 4.5% of global demand, in addition to 2.5 million barrels per day of refined products. ⑷ India, the largest importer of Russian crude oil by sea in June, with an average daily import of 1.5 million barrels, may be forced to abandon Rosneft amidst the Sino-US trade negotiations. ⑸ However, China imported approximately 2 million barrels per day of Rosneft via pipeline and sea in June, and its purchasing patterns are less likely to change due to its strategic relationship with Moscow. ⑹ Despite this, if India halts purchases, the Kremlin's finances will still be squeezed. 7. Although OPEC+ began gradually lifting its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cuts in April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait still have a combined 3.8 million bpd of spare production capacity that can be released to the market within 90 days. 8. However, market concerns remain about potential Russian retaliation, such as its previous brief blockade of foreign tankers from loading crude oil at Black Sea ports, which heightens the risk of a surge in oil prices.
