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2025-07-30 15:23:31
Oil Prices Consolidate at High Levels, Multiple Factors Influencing Market Trends: 1. After a 3% surge in the previous trading day, international oil prices consolidated during Wednesday's Asian session. Brent crude oil for October delivery hovered around $71.70 per barrel, while WTI crude oil edged up 0.09% to $69.27 per barrel. Brent crude oil for September delivery, expiring the same day, rose 5 cents to $72.56 per barrel. 2. US President Trump recently stated that if Russia fails to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine within the next 10-12 days, he will consider sanctions, including 100% secondary tariffs on Russian trading partners. Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, noted: "Current oil prices incorporate a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $4-5 unless Putin takes substantive conciliatory steps." 3. JPMorgan analysis indicates that while some countries may continue to purchase Russian oil, India's compliance could put Russia's 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil exports at risk. In addition, the restart of Venezuela's oil business is still awaiting approval from the United States, which may bring additional supply to the market. 4. The new tariff agreement reached between the United States and the European Union has eased concerns about a trade war, providing support for oil prices. The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, although it is generally expected that the current interest rate will remain unchanged. Although the latest IMF report raised its global growth forecast for this year and next year, it warned of risks such as a rebound in trade policy.
