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2025-07-30 17:43:35
Euro hovers at a six-week low, weak economic data weighing on exchange rates. (1) The euro remained above 1.15 against the US dollar, near its lowest level since June 20th. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in the first quarter, but better than the expected zero growth. Spain (0.7%) and France (0.3%) performed well, while Germany and Italy both contracted by 0.1%. (2) Spanish inflation rebounded unexpectedly in July, and the new US-EU trade agreement has been questioned as being biased towards the US. Market expectations for an ECB rate cut have been postponed – current pricing indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut before March 2026, with the probability of a December rate cut falling to 30%.
