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2025-07-30 17:45:45
[EUR/USD: How are options giants "anchoring" the market ahead of the non-farm payroll report?] ⑴ The recent pullback in EUR/USD has brought its price close to the strike prices of a large number of expiring foreign exchange options. ⑵ This option-related hedging flow is expected to strengthen at key support and resistance levels, helping to limit the exchange rate's range. ⑶ Data shows that on Wednesday, approximately €2.3 billion of foreign exchange options had strike prices concentrated in the 1.1500-1.1525 range, another €1.6 billion at 1.1550, and even more options in the 1.1575-1.1600 range. ⑷ Furthermore, on Thursday, €3.7 billion of options will have strike prices in the 1.1475-1.1500 range, and €3.6 billion in the 1.1595-1.1610 range. ⑸ On Friday, €1.1 billion and €2 billion of options will expire at 1.1500 and 1.1600, respectively. (6) Considering that implied volatility is at a long-term low and the risks of Wednesday's Fed decision are limited, there is a lack of new catalysts before the release of the non-farm payroll data. (7) Therefore, option hedging is expected to become a key factor in limiting market volatility.
