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2025-07-30 19:27:48
[Undercurrents in the Eurozone: Market Conundrum Amidst Intertwined Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Resilience] ⑴ Eurozone government bond yields remained stable on the evening of July 30th, Beijing time. ⑵ Market focus shifted to the EU-US trade agreement and the euro's significant decline this week. ⑶ Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Thursday morning, Beijing time, leaving the eurozone bond market uncertain. ⑷ With the agreement between the EU and the US on a 15% import tariff, tariff uncertainty has receded, leading to a slight decline in bond yields this week. ⑸ Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the eurozone benchmark, fell less than 1 basis point to 2.681%, falling 3.5 basis points this week. ⑹ This marked the first weekly decline since late June. ⑺ Latest data showed that the eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations and demonstrating resilience in the face of trade uncertainty. ⑻ ING Chief Economist Bert Colijn noted that despite the uncertainty surrounding the first half of the year, the combined growth performance in the first two quarters did not disappoint. ⑼ The euro came under pressure this week, falling 1.5%, its biggest weekly drop since November. ⑽ German two-year government bond yields remained stable at 1.92%, having fallen 2 basis points this week. ⑾ Market expectations for another ECB rate cut this year have fallen to around 30%, with a cut expected as early as March next year.
