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2025-07-30 19:47:31
The Price of the Fed's Patience: Could a Single Dissenting Vote Trigger a Market Shakeup? ⑴ The Fed's interest rate decision is expected early Thursday morning Beijing time, and the market's primary focus will be the voting split among the voting committee members. ⑵ Despite widespread expectations of a no-money decision, Fed Governor Waller has hinted at a possible vote for a rate cut. ⑶ Bowman has also expressed openness to a July rate cut, provided inflation data meets expectations. ⑷ However, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows the initial impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑸ Currently, most Fed officials favor maintaining a "patient" monetary policy stance. ⑹ If even a single dissenting vote occurs, the market is likely to react hawkishly. ⑺ The market currently prices a 60-65% probability of a September rate cut, and this expectation is quietly rising. ⑻ Any subtle policy signal could disrupt the calm in the US dollar market, exposing traders holding short positions to risk.
