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2025-07-30 21:18:35
[Italy's Economy Unexpectedly Contracts: Trade Headwinds and Weak Services Scream Alarms!] ⑴ On July 30th, Beijing time, Italy's preliminary second-quarter GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter. ⑵ This likely reflects the initial impact of US tariff rhetoric and global trade uncertainty. ⑶ Data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) showed that Italy's GDP, the eurozone's third-largest economy, grew by only 0.4% year-over-year in the second quarter, below the 0.6% forecast by economists surveyed by leading institutions. ⑷ The quarter-over-quarter decline was primarily attributed to negative trade flows, which offset the positive contribution of domestic demand. ⑸ Nicola Nobile, a leading economist, pointed out that this may be a normalization of net exports after businesses rushed to export in the first quarter to circumvent Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑹ UniCredit's Chief Italian Economist Loredana Federico believes that weak service sector activity was the primary cause, with the sector showing stability rather than the expected slight recovery, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. ⑺ The Italian government lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6% in April due to uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy changes. ⑻ Think tank Prometeia said the data was like a "cold water dump," indicating that trade-related uncertainties are far from over and Italian companies will continue to face the impact of new trade arrangements and the depreciation of the US dollar in the future.
