Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-07-30 21:44:08
[Pound Under Pressure: Data Positive for the US Dollar, Expectations of a Bank of England Rate Cut Increase Downside Risks for the Pound] ⑴ On July 30th, Beijing time, the British pound (GBP/USD) quickly gave up early gains, falling from its intraday high of 1.3380 to around 1.33. ⑵ Previously released US ADP employment data and second-quarter GDP figures both exceeded expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the US economy, supporting the dollar's strength and reinforcing the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. ⑶ The strong ADP data and inflation consistently above the Fed's 2% target have reduced market expectations for a recent dovish shift by the Fed. ⑷ The probability of a September rate cut has fallen from nearly 70% before the data release to 62%. ⑸ In contrast, the market generally expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates on August 7th, which would widen the US-UK interest rate differential and further weaken the Pound's appeal. ⑹ Rising inflation in the UK has also exacerbated market concerns about the UK's fiscal deficit, exerting bearish pressure on the Pound. ⑺ Currently, the British pound has received short-term support around 1.33, but if it falls below the Fibonacci key level of 1.3250, it may further fall to the 200-day moving average of 1.2976 or even lower to the 1.27 area.
