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2025-07-31 01:18:12
[US inflation data relies more on estimates than expected] The official US inflation report has recently relied on estimates more than previously thought. Due to staff shortages caused by the federal government's hiring freeze, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)'s monthly inflation survey relies more on guesswork than hard data on actual business charges. According to the latest BLS notice on Tuesday, data collection has been completely suspended in places such as Buffalo, New York; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Provo, Utah. Even in other areas, about 15% of price data comes from estimates rather than direct observations. Inflation Insights economist Omair Sharif said this 15% estimate ratio is "far higher than expected" and accounts for a significant proportion of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS pointed out that field sampling has been reduced, whether it is surveying prices of daily consumer goods such as clothing and haircuts, or estimating housing costs. The BLS emphasized that it will optimize resource allocation to minimize CPI errors. Compared with the approximately 5% estimate ratio during the economic shutdown during the epidemic, the current data collection challenges are more severe, highlighting the pressure facing the statistical system. (Dow Jones)
