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2025-07-31 17:50:45
[Italy's Inflation Slows: Core Data Stable, But Summer Promotions Hidden Signs?] ⑴ Italy's EU-Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data for July showed a preliminary month-on-month decline of 1.0%. ⑵ Year-on-year inflation slowed slightly to 1.7%. ⑶ This year-on-year reading was slightly higher than the median forecast of 1.6% from 17 analysts in a Reuters poll, while the monthly data was in line with the Reuters consensus. ⑷ Italy's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reported that the core domestic price index (NIC) rose 0.4% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year in July, matching the year-on-year increase in June. ⑸ The monthly decline in the HICP was primarily due to summer promotions, which the NIC index does not account for. ⑹ Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, remained stable at 2.1% year-on-year in July, unchanged from the previous month. ⑺ These data suggest that despite a slowdown in overall inflation in Italy, core inflation remained stable, which may provide guidance for the European Central Bank's policymaking. ⑻ The impact of summer promotions on HICP also suggests that we need to pay attention to seasonal factors when interpreting consumer price data.
