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2025-07-31 22:00:06
[Copper Market Trapped in the "TACO Trap": The Tariff Drama Behind the 20% Plunge] ⑴ Copper bulls suffered a targeted blow. In the evening session of July 31st, Beijing time, CME copper prices plummeted 20%, simply because Trump's tariff rhetoric struck the wrong target. Semi-finished copper wire and tubing were subject to a hefty 50% tariff, while refined copper was unexpectedly exempted until 2027. ⑵ The cost of this miscalculation was staggering: traders' frenzied arbitrage led to a 232,000-ton overstock in the United States, the highest since 2004. Ironically, the global supply chain, scrambling to fill the anticipated US shortfall, led to abnormal inventory flows in multiple countries. ⑶ The battle for scrap copper intensifies: The US mandates that 25% of domestically produced copper be sold domestically starting in 2027, while the EU simultaneously considers scrap export quotas. The global scrap copper trade landscape is facing a structural reshaping. (Refinitiv)
