Trump has renewed his tariff campaign, with Switzerland and Canada bearing the brunt. Switzerland's pharmaceutical industry faces tariffs as high as 39%, triggering currency market volatility and undermining the Swiss franc's safe-haven status. Global trade tensions have heightened risk aversion, but the US dollar and Japanese yen are dominating capital flows. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but internal policy disagreements are emerging. Markets are closely watching non-farm payroll data and the list of upcoming tariff increases. Analysts point to the global "repricing of risk" cycle, with macroeconomic policies and economic data continuing to drive market fluctuations.

Non-farm payroll data becomes the short-term focus, and the Fed's attitude affects global policy expectations

The upcoming release of the US July non-farm payroll data will be a key market focus in the near term. The median market forecast is for 104,000 new jobs, significantly lower than the 147,000 in the previous month. The wide range of forecasts indicates significant uncertainty in the data. If the actual result falls significantly short of expectations, it could push down US Treasury yields, further driving a correction in the US dollar and altering the short-term structure of exchange rate trends.

Traders are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. At this week's meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, but internal disagreements have emerged, with two FOMC members favoring a rate cut this year. While Chairman Powell reiterated his commitment to data-driven policy and continued vigilance against inflation risks, market expectations for a more flexible Fed approach have gradually grown, particularly amidst growing global trade uncertainty.

Global risk sentiment has suddenly heated up, and Trump's tariffs have triggered a new round of market volatility.

US President Trump's new round of tariffs, unveiled this week, has once again become a key driver of global market volatility. The inclusion of Canada and Switzerland in the initial list of high-tariffs has garnered widespread attention. The Swiss pharmaceutical industry has been particularly hard hit. Faced with tariffs as high as 39%, share prices of pharmaceutical giants like Novartis and Roche have plummeted, falling by over 2% and 3%, respectively. With nearly 50% of Swiss pharmaceutical exports destined for the US, market concerns about structural risks in the Swiss economy are rapidly growing.

While the Swiss government has expressed a willingness to compromise on fruit, nuts, and some medical equipment in exchange for easing pressure, it remains inflexible on agricultural protections and has failed to meet the US's demand for full openness. With less than a week left in the negotiation window, the outcome is uncertain. Trump is also pushing for pharmaceutical companies to standardize global pricing and lower domestic prices in the US, further squeezing the profit margins of multinational pharmaceutical companies. This move will undoubtedly impact the global medical industry chain and negatively impact high-end manufacturing exports from Europe and the US.

The Swiss franc's safe-haven properties have lost their effectiveness, signaling a potential for currency market volatility.

The Swiss franc, a traditional global safe-haven currency, has been performing unusually poorly amid rising geopolitical and trade risks, becoming one of the weakest G10 currencies. Analysts believe this trend is primarily driven by market reaction to expectations of higher tariffs in Switzerland, coupled with its high dependence on US trade. While the Swiss franc typically strengthens during periods of heightened risk aversion, its current weakness suggests that trade policy uncertainty is reshaping conventional currency market logic.

In contrast, the US dollar and the Japanese yen have re-established their strength amid this round of risk repricing. The US dollar index has broken through the 100 mark, reaching its highest level since May, reflecting traders shifting funds into the most liquid safe-haven assets. This reallocation of funds may put further pressure on the currencies of some small economies, particularly export-oriented countries facing heavy pressure from US tariffs.

The risk of a full-scale escalation of trade frictions remains, and the policy outlook is complex and unclear.

Trump's current round of tariffs, with its broad scope and strong impact, is widely viewed by forex analysts as an "asymmetric shock." Commerzbank notes that Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA face a 35% tariff, while Switzerland faces a high of 39% and South Africa 30%, while most Asian countries face tariffs around 15%, creating a significant disparity. Analysts believe that these tariffs will significantly depreciate the currencies of the countries involved, potentially feeding through to consumer prices and reigniting global inflation expectations.

This complex policy environment presents a dual challenge for the Federal Reserve: on the one hand, it must continue to address inflation risks, while on the other, it faces the reality of weakening growth momentum. If the Fed vacillates between controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability, it could further exacerbate market uncertainty and prompt trading strategies to shift to a more conservative mode.

As the risk repricing cycle approaches, trading strategies may need to adapt flexibly.

Amidst the current complex web of uncertainties, global markets are entering a phase of "risk repricing." The Trump administration's frequent policy changes and the diverging responses of global central banks are causing market pricing to shift, potentially rendering traditional safe havens less effective. Especially with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut waning and inflation yet to stabilize, every piece of economic data and every policy announcement can trigger significant fluctuations in exchange rate and interest rate markets.

Analysis indicates that the core logic behind the current market fluctuations is not the change in a single economic variable, but rather the heightened sensitivity of the chain of "policy signals - market interpretation - price response." Traders are placing greater emphasis on anticipating changes in the macro environment, closely monitoring non-farm payroll data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the potential release of a new round of tariffs to prepare for potential market fluctuations.