Weak U.S. economic data intensified expectations of a rate cut, with gold waiting to break through near a dense pressure range.
2025-08-06 13:41:51
Gold (XAU/USD) prices edged lower in Asian trading on Wednesday, retreating to around $3,370, snapping a four-day winning streak after hitting a near two-week high on Tuesday.
This round of gold price rise was driven by the Fed's policy outlook and safe-haven funds, but the latest market sentiment turned to optimism and the US dollar index rebounded slightly, which suppressed gold prices.
Risk assets generally rose, with Nasdaq futures also rebounding, temporarily cooling demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, a slight rebound in the US dollar also put pressure on non-interest-bearing gold.
Weak US data exacerbates economic concerns, supporting expectations of a rate cut this year
The U.S. non-farm payroll data released last Friday fell short of expectations. Coupled with the U.S. July ISM services PMI released on Tuesday, which fell to 50.1, a new low in several months, it triggered market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
"The poor performance of both the employment index and the new orders index suggests a weakening of momentum in the services sector, further strengthening the possibility of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve," analysts pointed out.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its September policy meeting and believes that the total rate cut may exceed 50 basis points this year. Although this expectation has curbed the bullish sentiment of the US dollar and provided support for gold, the optimistic atmosphere in the stock market has weakened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
In trade-related news, the US President announced that he would impose a new round of tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, and accelerate the pace of taxation in areas such as automobiles, steel and aluminum products.
This move has exacerbated market concerns about global supply chain risks, and investor sentiment remains cautious, which is expected to provide safe-haven support for gold in the medium term.
Judging from the technical chart, the price of gold encountered obvious resistance before reaching the $3,400 mark and failed to break through effectively, and the short-term trend turned to consolidation.
The 4-hour chart shows that gold found support at the 100-period simple moving average (around $3,350) and rebounded, indicating that bulls are still trying to maintain the initiative.
"The current hourly and daily oscillator indicators are still positive, but if the gold price cannot continue to hold above $3,400, it is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term," market insiders pointed out.
The upper resistance levels are the key resistance zones of $3,400 and $3,430 respectively. After breaking through, the upward channel will be opened, aiming at the historical high of $3,500 set in April.
The initial support below is at $3,350. If it falls below, it will point to the intermediate support of $3,322 and the integer mark of $3,300. Further fall below it may test the one-month low of $3,268.
Editor's comments:
While gold prices are currently under short-term pressure, they remain supported in the medium term amidst a slowing US economy, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing potential trade frictions. The short-term trend is expected to fluctuate around the $3,400 mark. Focus is on speeches by Federal Reserve officials and next week's US CPI data, which may provide new direction for gold.
This round of gold price rise was driven by the Fed's policy outlook and safe-haven funds, but the latest market sentiment turned to optimism and the US dollar index rebounded slightly, which suppressed gold prices.
Risk assets generally rose, with Nasdaq futures also rebounding, temporarily cooling demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, a slight rebound in the US dollar also put pressure on non-interest-bearing gold.
Weak US data exacerbates economic concerns, supporting expectations of a rate cut this year
The U.S. non-farm payroll data released last Friday fell short of expectations. Coupled with the U.S. July ISM services PMI released on Tuesday, which fell to 50.1, a new low in several months, it triggered market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
"The poor performance of both the employment index and the new orders index suggests a weakening of momentum in the services sector, further strengthening the possibility of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve," analysts pointed out.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its September policy meeting and believes that the total rate cut may exceed 50 basis points this year. Although this expectation has curbed the bullish sentiment of the US dollar and provided support for gold, the optimistic atmosphere in the stock market has weakened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
In trade-related news, the US President announced that he would impose a new round of tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, and accelerate the pace of taxation in areas such as automobiles, steel and aluminum products.
This move has exacerbated market concerns about global supply chain risks, and investor sentiment remains cautious, which is expected to provide safe-haven support for gold in the medium term.
Judging from the technical chart, the price of gold encountered obvious resistance before reaching the $3,400 mark and failed to break through effectively, and the short-term trend turned to consolidation.
The 4-hour chart shows that gold found support at the 100-period simple moving average (around $3,350) and rebounded, indicating that bulls are still trying to maintain the initiative.
"The current hourly and daily oscillator indicators are still positive, but if the gold price cannot continue to hold above $3,400, it is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term," market insiders pointed out.
The upper resistance levels are the key resistance zones of $3,400 and $3,430 respectively. After breaking through, the upward channel will be opened, aiming at the historical high of $3,500 set in April.
The initial support below is at $3,350. If it falls below, it will point to the intermediate support of $3,322 and the integer mark of $3,300. Further fall below it may test the one-month low of $3,268.
Editor's comments:
While gold prices are currently under short-term pressure, they remain supported in the medium term amidst a slowing US economy, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing potential trade frictions. The short-term trend is expected to fluctuate around the $3,400 mark. Focus is on speeches by Federal Reserve officials and next week's US CPI data, which may provide new direction for gold.
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