The outlook for gold is unpredictable as resistance at $3,400 is high.
2025-08-11 17:27:41
Gold prices (XAU/USD) faced intense selling pressure on Monday (August 11), failing to break through the key psychological level of $3,400. Gold briefly attempted to climb higher during the day, but after failing to find solid support, it quickly retreated. Safe-haven demand for gold was suppressed, primarily due to a shift in market sentiment, with both stocks and US futures generally rising and risk appetite rising. Traders shifted their focus to the upcoming US-Russia summit, driving market fluctuations.
Despite the current positive market sentiment, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may resume interest rate cuts in September have provided some support for gold. With the weakening of the US labor market and the impact of inflation data, market expectations of rate cuts have gradually increased.
However, the market remains concerned about whether the expiring tariff agreement will lead to an escalation of trade disputes, and these uncertainties continue to affect the market. With the release of US inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week, the market is also waiting for guidance from these economic data to assess the future trend of gold.
Against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic environment, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has attracted widespread attention. Recent challenges facing the global economy include, but are not limited to, global trade frictions, slowing US economic growth, and ongoing geopolitical risks.
The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy remains a key support for the gold market. Weak July non-farm payroll data, particularly the further deterioration in the labor market, has fueled market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Fed officials have also publicly expressed concerns about insufficient inflation control and a fragile labor market. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Powell suggested that rate cuts may be necessary to maintain economic growth and avoid a recession. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates again in September to address potential economic slowdown pressures, which has provided some support for gold.
This week's release of US CPI and PPI data will be a key market focus. These figures will directly impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which in turn will influence the US dollar and gold prices. Weak data could further reinforce market expectations of a Fed rate cut, supporting a rise in gold prices.
From the technical chart, the price of gold encountered strong resistance in the $3,400 area and failed to successfully break through this important price level. The price once tried to break through, but failed to form a stable upward trend and quickly retreated, indicating that there is strong selling pressure in the market near the current price.
Gold prices are currently approaching the middle Bollinger Band (US$3,350.18), indicating a period of market consolidation. If prices break through and stabilize above US$3,400, a surge could occur, potentially targeting the US$3,450-3,500 range. However, if prices fail to break through US$3,400 and fall back to US$3,250, downside risks remain.
The MACD line indicates relatively weak upward momentum for gold prices in the short term. Although the DIF (9.71) and DEA (5.91) show signs of a crossover, the red bar momentum is weak, indicating limited upside potential for gold prices in the short term. Current market momentum is still insufficient to support a strong breakout for gold, so caution remains regarding the risk of a pullback in the short term.
Sentiment in the gold market is currently mixed. On the one hand, the performance of the stock market and US futures markets has boosted market optimism, weakening gold's safe-haven demand. On the other hand, global trade frictions, talks between the US and Russia, and upcoming inflation data continue to exert significant pressure on the market, leaving traders highly vigilant about future economic uncertainties.
Bullish Outlook:
From a technical perspective, if gold prices successfully break through the strong resistance level of $3,400 and consolidate within this area, a new upward trend is expected. Given the widespread market expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the lingering global political risks, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will continue. Therefore, if prices break through $3,400, the target range could be between $3,450 and $3,500.
Bearish Outlook:
If gold prices fail to break through $3,400 and continue to fall back to the $3,250 area, further downside risks may arise. In this case, gold will face strong technical retracement pressure, and future support levels will focus on important psychological levels such as $3,200 and $3,150.
Despite the current positive market sentiment, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may resume interest rate cuts in September have provided some support for gold. With the weakening of the US labor market and the impact of inflation data, market expectations of rate cuts have gradually increased.
However, the market remains concerned about whether the expiring tariff agreement will lead to an escalation of trade disputes, and these uncertainties continue to affect the market. With the release of US inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week, the market is also waiting for guidance from these economic data to assess the future trend of gold.
Fundamentals
Against the backdrop of an uncertain global economic environment, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has attracted widespread attention. Recent challenges facing the global economy include, but are not limited to, global trade frictions, slowing US economic growth, and ongoing geopolitical risks.
The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy remains a key support for the gold market. Weak July non-farm payroll data, particularly the further deterioration in the labor market, has fueled market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Fed officials have also publicly expressed concerns about insufficient inflation control and a fragile labor market. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Powell suggested that rate cuts may be necessary to maintain economic growth and avoid a recession. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates again in September to address potential economic slowdown pressures, which has provided some support for gold.
This week's release of US CPI and PPI data will be a key market focus. These figures will directly impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which in turn will influence the US dollar and gold prices. Weak data could further reinforce market expectations of a Fed rate cut, supporting a rise in gold prices.
Technical aspects
From the technical chart, the price of gold encountered strong resistance in the $3,400 area and failed to successfully break through this important price level. The price once tried to break through, but failed to form a stable upward trend and quickly retreated, indicating that there is strong selling pressure in the market near the current price.
Gold prices are currently approaching the middle Bollinger Band (US$3,350.18), indicating a period of market consolidation. If prices break through and stabilize above US$3,400, a surge could occur, potentially targeting the US$3,450-3,500 range. However, if prices fail to break through US$3,400 and fall back to US$3,250, downside risks remain.
The MACD line indicates relatively weak upward momentum for gold prices in the short term. Although the DIF (9.71) and DEA (5.91) show signs of a crossover, the red bar momentum is weak, indicating limited upside potential for gold prices in the short term. Current market momentum is still insufficient to support a strong breakout for gold, so caution remains regarding the risk of a pullback in the short term.
Market Sentiment Observation
Sentiment in the gold market is currently mixed. On the one hand, the performance of the stock market and US futures markets has boosted market optimism, weakening gold's safe-haven demand. On the other hand, global trade frictions, talks between the US and Russia, and upcoming inflation data continue to exert significant pressure on the market, leaving traders highly vigilant about future economic uncertainties.
Market Outlook
Bullish Outlook:
From a technical perspective, if gold prices successfully break through the strong resistance level of $3,400 and consolidate within this area, a new upward trend is expected. Given the widespread market expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the lingering global political risks, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will continue. Therefore, if prices break through $3,400, the target range could be between $3,450 and $3,500.
Bearish Outlook:
If gold prices fail to break through $3,400 and continue to fall back to the $3,250 area, further downside risks may arise. In this case, gold will face strong technical retracement pressure, and future support levels will focus on important psychological levels such as $3,200 and $3,150.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
