Breakout or pullback? Gold is stuck at the end of the triangle, with the 3390 resistance level becoming a key lifeline.
2025-08-14 11:37:48
Gold attracted some buyers during the Asian trading session on Thursday (August 14th), with spot prices rising as high as $3,375 per ounce before retreating to around $3,356.40 per ounce, practically flat. The precious metal's third consecutive day of gains came amid a weakening US dollar. Traders will be closely watching the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the weekly initial unemployment report, both due at 8:30 PM Thursday evening.
Tame U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its September meeting and increased the likelihood of further cuts later this year. This, in turn, weighed on the dollar and provided some support for dollar-denominated commodity prices. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
"Gold is being supported by rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut following the mild CPI data and weak July non-farm payrolls," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Traduc.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, as tame inflation data for July suggested the transmission effect of U.S. President Donald Trump's broad import tariffs on household inflation has yet to become apparent.
Still, progress on the trade front could limit upside for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Monday to delay the implementation of sweeping tariffs on China, extending the deal by 90 days just hours before it was due to expire.
Gold is running below the original downward trend line and above the original X-line, and is at the end of a large triangle consolidation pattern. At the same time, it is affected by the evening star K-line combination on Monday (August 11). The graph shows that the upward breakthrough force is relatively small. The first upper resistance level is at 3390, which is the intersection of the downward trend line and the neckline of the evening star pattern. The downward support is around 3321 and 3330, which is the intersection of the X-line and the breakthrough position of the morning star pattern on August 1.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 11:34 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,356.41 per ounce.
Tame U.S. inflation data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its September meeting and increased the likelihood of further cuts later this year. This, in turn, weighed on the dollar and provided some support for dollar-denominated commodity prices. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
"Gold is being supported by rising expectations of a September Fed rate cut following the mild CPI data and weak July non-farm payrolls," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Traduc.
Markets are pricing in a 94% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, as tame inflation data for July suggested the transmission effect of U.S. President Donald Trump's broad import tariffs on household inflation has yet to become apparent.
Still, progress on the trade front could limit upside for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Monday to delay the implementation of sweeping tariffs on China, extending the deal by 90 days just hours before it was due to expire.
Technical Analysis:
Gold is running below the original downward trend line and above the original X-line, and is at the end of a large triangle consolidation pattern. At the same time, it is affected by the evening star K-line combination on Monday (August 11). The graph shows that the upward breakthrough force is relatively small. The first upper resistance level is at 3390, which is the intersection of the downward trend line and the neckline of the evening star pattern. The downward support is around 3321 and 3330, which is the intersection of the X-line and the breakthrough position of the morning star pattern on August 1.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 11:34 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,356.41 per ounce.
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