This week, the gold market remained stagnant due to a combination of factors. Gold prices hovered in a narrow range between $3,330 and $3,350, as market participants cautiously awaited the summit between US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. While expectations for the summit's outcome were muted, the market remained focused on any potential signals regarding geopolitical risks, as geopolitical tensions typically boost gold's price as a safe-haven asset. While gold prices saw a slight increase on Friday, they still fell 1.7% for the week.



The outcome of the high-stakes summit in Alaska, aimed at discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, could have a significant impact on gold prices. Geopolitical uncertainty and a lower interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold.

Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said that while gold prices stabilized on Friday, there could be more volatility ahead depending on how the summit progresses.

Analysts at Australia New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) also pointed out that macroeconomic and geopolitical risks will intensify in the second half of this year, which will enhance gold's safe-haven appeal.

ANZ believes that the bullish outlook for gold remains intact, with core supporting factors including: tariff hikes, a slowing global economy, loosening US monetary policy and the prospect of a continued weak US dollar.

Economic data this week offered mixed signals. While the Federal Reserve was widely expected to cut interest rates, Thursday's release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which saw its largest increase in three years, tempered expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. This sent non-yielding gold prices lower following the data release.

On the dollar front, the dollar weakened despite solid growth in U.S. retail sales in July released this week, which provided some support for gold as a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Technical analysis: Long-term bullish trend remains unchanged


(Source of spot gold daily chart: Yihuitong)

From a technical analysis perspective, the gold market has been in an uptrend since October 2022, with $3,500 being a key resistance level. Although gold prices have fallen this week, it is still seen as a "buy on the dip" opportunity.

Analysts believe that if gold prices can break through $3,500, it could open up further upside potential towards $3,800. However, due to the summer, market trading volume has decreased, leading to recent sideways fluctuations. Despite short-term market volatility, as long as gold prices can hold the long-term support level of $3,200, its upward trend is expected to continue.

Next week, the market will closely watch Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium for more clues about the future direction of monetary policy, which may determine the next move of gold.