Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut boosted gold bulls, but rising risk appetite suppressed safe-haven buying, and gold maintained slight fluctuations
2025-08-14 13:25:49
Gold prices retreated after a sharp intraday rise on Thursday, hitting $3,375 in Asian trading hours before seeing profit-taking. Renewed risk sentiment, fueled by optimism about a three-month extension of global trade easing and an upcoming US-Russia summit, dampened buying of safe-haven assets. However, the continued weakness of the US dollar and growing expectations of interest rate cuts continued to provide support for gold.
In terms of policy expectations, a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost certain. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is close to 100%, and the market also expects at least two rate cuts this year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent even said the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month; Trump believes that interest rates should be lowered to 1% or lower.
However, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is worried about rising core inflation, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged the weakening employment data but did not explicitly support a rate cut.
The market backdrop suggests that safe-haven demand is temporarily limited. Aside from Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which maintained its record-breaking upward momentum, U.S. Treasury yields remained low, with investors awaiting the release of U.S. July PPI and initial jobless claims data for new trading signals.
Gold prices have previously broken through the $3,360 resistance level and are showing resilience near the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating that bulls remain in control. Short-term resistance is at $3,375, and a break above that could push prices towards $3,400, potentially pushing them closer to the all-time high at $3,500.
The lower support level is $3,330. If it falls below this level, it may accelerate its decline to the $3,300 mark or even lower. At that time, the short-term trend may turn bearish.
Editor's Note: Gold's current bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with short-term trends likely driven more by expectations of a Fed rate cut and shifting risk sentiment. If the US-Russia summit and trade negotiations yield positive results, safe-haven buying may continue to weaken; however, as long as the US dollar remains weak, gold remains attractive for bargain hunting.
In terms of policy expectations, a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost certain. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is close to 100%, and the market also expects at least two rate cuts this year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent even said the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month; Trump believes that interest rates should be lowered to 1% or lower.
However, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is worried about rising core inflation, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged the weakening employment data but did not explicitly support a rate cut.
The market backdrop suggests that safe-haven demand is temporarily limited. Aside from Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which maintained its record-breaking upward momentum, U.S. Treasury yields remained low, with investors awaiting the release of U.S. July PPI and initial jobless claims data for new trading signals.
Gold prices have previously broken through the $3,360 resistance level and are showing resilience near the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating that bulls remain in control. Short-term resistance is at $3,375, and a break above that could push prices towards $3,400, potentially pushing them closer to the all-time high at $3,500.
The lower support level is $3,330. If it falls below this level, it may accelerate its decline to the $3,300 mark or even lower. At that time, the short-term trend may turn bearish.
Editor's Note: Gold's current bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with short-term trends likely driven more by expectations of a Fed rate cut and shifting risk sentiment. If the US-Russia summit and trade negotiations yield positive results, safe-haven buying may continue to weaken; however, as long as the US dollar remains weak, gold remains attractive for bargain hunting.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
