Brent crude oil prices remained stable during the Asia-Europe session on Thursday (August 14th). However, during the New York session on Wednesday, Brent crude oil rebounded after hitting a two-month low of $65.00 before recovering. It is currently trading at $65.82 per barrel, up 0.17%. This was driven by bearish supply guidance from the US government and the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as an unexpected 3 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories (the market had expected a 275,000 barrel decrease). Oil prices briefly dipped to the February low of $65.00. Market speculation then mounted about Ukraine's attack on a key Russian oil pipeline hub, raising uncertainty about the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin in Moscow on Friday (August 15th). This triggered a rebound in prices.



At 3:00 p.m. on August 13, The Moscow Times published a breaking news report: Late on the night of the 12th, Ukraine launched a large number of drones to carry out air strikes on the Unecha Linear Production Dispatching Station and pumping station, an important node of Russia's most important oil pipeline, the Druzhba Pipeline, in the Bryansk Oblast, an oil refinery in the city of Laviyansk in the Skrasnodar Territory on the Kuban River, and a refinery in Traktorozavodsky, north of Volgograd.

Ukraine said it attacked a key oil pumping station in Russia's Bryansk region, sparking a fire at a hub that carries the Druzhba pipeline to Europe. The facility is also connected to the Baltic Pipeline System 2, which carries Russian crude oil to Ust-Luga, the country's second-largest Baltic oil port.

The General Staff in Kyiv reported explosions at both an oil storage area and a pumping station. Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomazov blamed the attack on Ukrainian rockets and drones, calling the strike an "act of terror" but stating the fire was under control. Hungarian MOL and Slovak Transpetrol reported no disruption to crude oil shipments, and Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry stated that oil transit through the network was unaffected.

The attack was the latest in a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure this month, which have already knocked out three major refineries. These outages, combined with rising domestic demand, helped drive a 6.6% drop in Russia's seaborne fuel exports in July. Analysts expect refined product exports to fall further in August, while crude oil shipments from Western ports are likely to increase as storage space in Moscow runs out.

Just days before the expected meeting between Trump and Putin, the US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Russia. According to CBS, the White House is working to facilitate a trilateral summit with Ukraine next weekend (August 23). Trump has been increasing economic pressure on Russian buyers, doubling tariffs on Indian goods for New Delhi's continued imports of Russian crude oil and warning the Asian giant that tariffs of up to 500% could be imposed.

Meanwhile, Russian officials sent tough signals ahead of the talks, telling media that Moscow would negotiate only if it recognized the "new reality," referring to its control over occupied Ukrainian territories, and vowing that Russia would "win decisively" no matter how much pressure the West exerted.

With energy infrastructure now a clear target for Ukraine and positions hardening on both sides, the attack on Unicha underscores the high stakes and risks of next week’s high-stakes diplomacy.

Technical aspects:

Oil prices are trading between two ranges, with 65.90 as the dividing line. They have found some support and will choose which range to enter. Traders are awaiting news on Friday regarding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.


(US crude oil daily chart, source: Yihuitong)

At 14:10 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil is currently trading at $65.94 per barrel.