Gold bulls and bears battle for survival! 3355 becomes a "devilish resistance level," Fed rate cut expectations versus inflation warnings, tonight's data will determine the outcome!
2025-08-15 16:47:35
Spot gold prices continued their modest gains during the Asian and European trading sessions on Friday (August 15), partially recovering the previous day's two-week low, but overall bullish momentum remained lacking. The US dollar index, which surged on Thursday on the back of producer price data, faced renewed selling pressure as traders widely anticipated the Federal Reserve would resume its interest rate cut cycle in September. This policy expectation has become a key factor boosting demand for the zero-interest-bearing asset, gold.
However, emerging inflation concerns appear to have dampened market expectations for aggressive Fed easing. This, combined with the prevailing risk-on environment, has deterred gold bulls from aggressively building positions. Consequently, investors will need to await stronger follow-up buying to confirm a bottom in gold prices. The market is closely watching upcoming US macroeconomic data for renewed trading momentum.
Daily Digest Market Update: Gold is expected to extend intraday gains amid renewed dollar selling
Market bets on aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve have cooled significantly after the U.S. PPI rose more than expected on Thursday. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI accelerated from 2.4% to 3.3% in July, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%.
This "inflation heating up" signal pushed the US dollar index to rebound strongly from its lowest level since July 28 hit on Wednesday, causing gold prices to fluctuate by as much as $45 during the day.
However, the dollar's rebound momentum stalled in Asian trading on Friday, as interest rate futures markets continued to price in a 90% probability of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool even showed traders anticipating a cumulative 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. This policy outlook curbed further dollar strength, providing support for zero-interest-bearing gold, but widespread risk appetite limited gains in safe-haven assets.
The US and China agreed to extend their tariff truce for three months, easing concerns about a full-blown trade war between the two economies. Coupled with market expectations that Friday's US-Russia summit would help end the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, risk sentiment in global financial markets continued to improve.
Investors are focusing on upcoming data such as US retail sales, the New York Fed manufacturing index, the University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which may affect the US dollar and provide new trading momentum for gold prices.
It is worth noting that gold may end its three-day winning streak on a weekly basis, and continued weak buying indicates less downward resistance. Therefore, any rebound may become a selling opportunity, and the rally may quickly fade.
Gold is particularly vulnerable below the key resistance level of the 100-hour moving average, currently around $3,355.
Gold's recent attempts to break through its 100-hour moving average, coupled with a sharp overnight decline, have further reinforced the bearish outlook for spot gold. Technical indicators, including hourly oscillators that remain in bearish territory and the nascent downward momentum on the daily chart, reinforce the short-term bearish outlook for gold.
The 100-hour moving average (currently around $3,355) currently constitutes a key resistance level, and any rebound attempt may be blocked here. Only by effectively breaking through this resistance can gold prices return to the overnight high of $3,375 and then challenge the $3,400 mark.
On the downside, $3,330 (a two-week low hit on Thursday) provides initial support. A sustained break below this level could accelerate the decline towards the psychological level of $3,300. A confirmed break below this level would reinforce short-term bearish expectations and open up space for a deeper correction.
At 16:20 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at 3341.19/20.
However, emerging inflation concerns appear to have dampened market expectations for aggressive Fed easing. This, combined with the prevailing risk-on environment, has deterred gold bulls from aggressively building positions. Consequently, investors will need to await stronger follow-up buying to confirm a bottom in gold prices. The market is closely watching upcoming US macroeconomic data for renewed trading momentum.
Daily Digest Market Update: Gold is expected to extend intraday gains amid renewed dollar selling
Market bets on aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve have cooled significantly after the U.S. PPI rose more than expected on Thursday. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI accelerated from 2.4% to 3.3% in July, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%.
This "inflation heating up" signal pushed the US dollar index to rebound strongly from its lowest level since July 28 hit on Wednesday, causing gold prices to fluctuate by as much as $45 during the day.
However, the dollar's rebound momentum stalled in Asian trading on Friday, as interest rate futures markets continued to price in a 90% probability of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool even showed traders anticipating a cumulative 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. This policy outlook curbed further dollar strength, providing support for zero-interest-bearing gold, but widespread risk appetite limited gains in safe-haven assets.
The US and China agreed to extend their tariff truce for three months, easing concerns about a full-blown trade war between the two economies. Coupled with market expectations that Friday's US-Russia summit would help end the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, risk sentiment in global financial markets continued to improve.
Investors are focusing on upcoming data such as US retail sales, the New York Fed manufacturing index, the University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which may affect the US dollar and provide new trading momentum for gold prices.
It is worth noting that gold may end its three-day winning streak on a weekly basis, and continued weak buying indicates less downward resistance. Therefore, any rebound may become a selling opportunity, and the rally may quickly fade.
Gold is particularly vulnerable below the key resistance level of the 100-hour moving average, currently around $3,355.
Gold's recent attempts to break through its 100-hour moving average, coupled with a sharp overnight decline, have further reinforced the bearish outlook for spot gold. Technical indicators, including hourly oscillators that remain in bearish territory and the nascent downward momentum on the daily chart, reinforce the short-term bearish outlook for gold.
The 100-hour moving average (currently around $3,355) currently constitutes a key resistance level, and any rebound attempt may be blocked here. Only by effectively breaking through this resistance can gold prices return to the overnight high of $3,375 and then challenge the $3,400 mark.
On the downside, $3,330 (a two-week low hit on Thursday) provides initial support. A sustained break below this level could accelerate the decline towards the psychological level of $3,300. A confirmed break below this level would reinforce short-term bearish expectations and open up space for a deeper correction.
At 16:20 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at 3341.19/20.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
