EUR/GBP remained near 0.8650, with ECB interest rate decision and UK economic data becoming the short-term focus.
2025-09-11 14:07:37
The market generally expects that the ECB will keep the Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 2% at its September meeting, marking the second consecutive time of keeping the policy unchanged.
The market will closely monitor the interest rate announcement and President Lagarde's press conference for the latest guidance on monetary policy for the year. Analysts point out that due to political tensions in France and rising trade concerns, the ECB may hint at the possibility of further easing in the future, which will provide potential support for the euro.
On Friday, the UK will release its July GDP and factory data. Market expectations suggest that the UK economy will stagnate on a month-over-month basis, continuing the 0.4% growth seen in June. Weak data would increase pressure on the British pound and provide upward momentum for the EUR/GBP pair.
On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern for six consecutive weeks, with price trading close to its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting a lack of clear short-term direction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating between 40 and 60, reflecting a cautious investor stance and a cautious approach in the short term.
If it breaks through the high of 0.8713 on September 2, the exchange rate may further test the high of 0.8754 on July 28. The key psychological resistance is the 0.8800 integer mark.
If it falls below the August 27 low of 0.8610, it may fall back to the July 2 low of 0.8577. Further support will be at the June 30 low of 0.8539.
Editor's opinion:
In the short term, the key to EUR/GBP's performance lies in whether the ECB's interest rate announcement and UK economic data can provide a breakthrough direction. If UK data is weak and the ECB releases easing signals, the probability of the exchange rate breaking through 0.8713 increases;
If Eurozone political and trade concerns intensify, the exchange rate may fall back to 0.8610 or even lower. Key support and resistance areas should be closely monitored and the market direction should be confirmed after the data is released.
The market will closely monitor the interest rate announcement and President Lagarde's press conference for the latest guidance on monetary policy for the year. Analysts point out that due to political tensions in France and rising trade concerns, the ECB may hint at the possibility of further easing in the future, which will provide potential support for the euro.
On Friday, the UK will release its July GDP and factory data. Market expectations suggest that the UK economy will stagnate on a month-over-month basis, continuing the 0.4% growth seen in June. Weak data would increase pressure on the British pound and provide upward momentum for the EUR/GBP pair.
On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern for six consecutive weeks, with price trading close to its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting a lack of clear short-term direction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating between 40 and 60, reflecting a cautious investor stance and a cautious approach in the short term.
If it breaks through the high of 0.8713 on September 2, the exchange rate may further test the high of 0.8754 on July 28. The key psychological resistance is the 0.8800 integer mark.
If it falls below the August 27 low of 0.8610, it may fall back to the July 2 low of 0.8577. Further support will be at the June 30 low of 0.8539.
Editor's opinion:
In the short term, the key to EUR/GBP's performance lies in whether the ECB's interest rate announcement and UK economic data can provide a breakthrough direction. If UK data is weak and the ECB releases easing signals, the probability of the exchange rate breaking through 0.8713 increases;
If Eurozone political and trade concerns intensify, the exchange rate may fall back to 0.8610 or even lower. Key support and resistance areas should be closely monitored and the market direction should be confirmed after the data is released.
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