OPEC and the International Energy Agency have different outlooks, and traders have different views on crude oil supply and demand risks.
2025-09-12 20:15:55
During the European trading session on Friday (September 12), WTI crude oil futures rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off, closing at $63.30, up 1.49%.
This rebound brought futures gains for the week to approximately 2.11%. Prices broke through the 0.382 retracement level and the 50-day moving average (63.20/63.30) before encountering resistance. A sustained break above this resistance level could trigger a rally targeting 64.28 (0.618 retracement). Further upside pressure could raise the key resistance level at $66.02, which will determine whether bulls can effectively extend the rally.
OPEC and IEA disagree on oil price forecasts
The latest supply forecasts are affecting market sentiment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Thursday saying that global oil supply will increase more than previously expected due to plans by OPEC+ producers, including Russia, to increase production.
In contrast, OPEC reiterated its optimistic outlook for oil demand growth in its monthly report, citing steady global economic growth. This divergence highlights a core contradiction in the market: while OPEC is bullish on demand support, traders remain concerned about an oversupplied market, which could lead to lower futures prices if consumption growth lags.
Middle East and Russian risks support oil price forecasts
Supply disruption risks continue to offset bearish oversupply expectations. A drone attack on the port of Primorsk, one of Russia's largest export hubs, set a ship and a pumping station on fire, highlighting the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
This incident, coupled with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, further consolidated the "geopolitical premium" included in crude oil prices.
India's import policy puts pressure on Russian crude oil flows
At the physical level, Adani Group, India's largest private port operator, has banned oil tankers subject to Western sanctions from entering its ports. As India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil, this move could disrupt crude flows and complicate Russia's efforts to reroute exports under pressure from sanctions.
Combined with potential secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian crude, traders are closely watching India’s import policy – a key variable that could impact seaborne crude supplies.
Market Forecast: Breakout above $63.30 is bullish, but resistance remains strong
Crude oil prices found support at recent lows, while geopolitical risks and tight refined product supplies continued to provide support for oil prices. However, oversupply concerns and resistance at $63.30 remained the main resistance.
If buyers push prices above this level, a test of stronger resistance at $66.02 will follow. Until then, price action suggests a cautious but slightly bullish market, with traders watching to see if supply risks can support upward momentum.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: Yihuitong)
Crude oil prices are currently in a correction trend. After falling from a high of 70.51, they found initial support near 61.45 and are currently trading around $63. Based on Fibonacci retracements, the price is currently trading near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (63.20), a key short-term level. A decisive break above this level could lead to a move to 64.28 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) and even higher to 66.03 (1.000 Fibonacci retracement). Conversely, a break below 61.45 would further strengthen bearish sentiment.
In terms of the moving average system, the short-term MA (50) is lower than the long-term MA (200), the medium-term bearish trend has not changed, and the current price is running below the main moving average, indicating that there is greater pressure from above.
The MACD indicator remains below zero, indicating weak momentum and no clear reversal signal. The RSI is currently at 54.42, in neutral territory, reflecting a relatively balanced bullish and bearish outlook. However, further upward movement would strengthen the momentum for a price rebound.
Overall, crude oil is in a technical rebound stage in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still bearish. If it can break through 63.20 and stabilize, it is expected to rebound further to challenge the upper pressure; otherwise, we still need to be vigilant about the risk of another decline.
At 20:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$63.43 per barrel, up 1.70%.
This rebound brought futures gains for the week to approximately 2.11%. Prices broke through the 0.382 retracement level and the 50-day moving average (63.20/63.30) before encountering resistance. A sustained break above this resistance level could trigger a rally targeting 64.28 (0.618 retracement). Further upside pressure could raise the key resistance level at $66.02, which will determine whether bulls can effectively extend the rally.
OPEC and IEA disagree on oil price forecasts
The latest supply forecasts are affecting market sentiment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Thursday saying that global oil supply will increase more than previously expected due to plans by OPEC+ producers, including Russia, to increase production.
In contrast, OPEC reiterated its optimistic outlook for oil demand growth in its monthly report, citing steady global economic growth. This divergence highlights a core contradiction in the market: while OPEC is bullish on demand support, traders remain concerned about an oversupplied market, which could lead to lower futures prices if consumption growth lags.
Middle East and Russian risks support oil price forecasts
Supply disruption risks continue to offset bearish oversupply expectations. A drone attack on the port of Primorsk, one of Russia's largest export hubs, set a ship and a pumping station on fire, highlighting the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
This incident, coupled with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, further consolidated the "geopolitical premium" included in crude oil prices.
India's import policy puts pressure on Russian crude oil flows
At the physical level, Adani Group, India's largest private port operator, has banned oil tankers subject to Western sanctions from entering its ports. As India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil, this move could disrupt crude flows and complicate Russia's efforts to reroute exports under pressure from sanctions.
Combined with potential secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian crude, traders are closely watching India’s import policy – a key variable that could impact seaborne crude supplies.
Market Forecast: Breakout above $63.30 is bullish, but resistance remains strong
Crude oil prices found support at recent lows, while geopolitical risks and tight refined product supplies continued to provide support for oil prices. However, oversupply concerns and resistance at $63.30 remained the main resistance.
If buyers push prices above this level, a test of stronger resistance at $66.02 will follow. Until then, price action suggests a cautious but slightly bullish market, with traders watching to see if supply risks can support upward momentum.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: Yihuitong)
Crude oil prices are currently in a correction trend. After falling from a high of 70.51, they found initial support near 61.45 and are currently trading around $63. Based on Fibonacci retracements, the price is currently trading near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (63.20), a key short-term level. A decisive break above this level could lead to a move to 64.28 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) and even higher to 66.03 (1.000 Fibonacci retracement). Conversely, a break below 61.45 would further strengthen bearish sentiment.
In terms of the moving average system, the short-term MA (50) is lower than the long-term MA (200), the medium-term bearish trend has not changed, and the current price is running below the main moving average, indicating that there is greater pressure from above.
The MACD indicator remains below zero, indicating weak momentum and no clear reversal signal. The RSI is currently at 54.42, in neutral territory, reflecting a relatively balanced bullish and bearish outlook. However, further upward movement would strengthen the momentum for a price rebound.
Overall, crude oil is in a technical rebound stage in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still bearish. If it can break through 63.20 and stabilize, it is expected to rebound further to challenge the upper pressure; otherwise, we still need to be vigilant about the risk of another decline.
At 20:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$63.43 per barrel, up 1.70%.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
