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2025-09-12 20:36:49
[Caixin Futures: Intensifying supply-demand dynamics in the agricultural products sector put pressure on most commodities] ⑴ Palm oil: Bearish. The nationalization of Indonesia's 5.7 million tons of palm oil production capacity is positive, but quantifiable. Malaysian spot prices rose before retreating, and domestic spot prices followed suit to 9260 before finding resistance at 9380-9400 for the 01 contract. The 150 premium has already overdrawn expectations, suggesting a dip to the lower bound of the 9000-9250 range. If Malaysian exports remain weak in September, prices could dip to 8800-9040. ⑵ Soybean meal: Maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Ample soybean supplies are expected in the fourth quarter, but a gap in the first quarter of next year is expected to support premiums for future months. Reserve soybean auctions and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations are dampening short-term sentiment. We must monitor the implementation of policies and auction volumes, as short-term momentum is insufficient. ⑶ Corn: A light position is recommended for short trading. Traders' healthy profits last year are fueling speculation in the new season. Low North Port inventories are supporting a year-on-year increase in Northeast China's opening price. New season spring corn saw a brief period of strength upon arrival before weakening. 4. Pigs: Maintain a light position and short on rallies. Slaughter volumes continued to increase in September, with limited room for weight loss and a slight increase in supply. Declining slaughter volumes at the end and beginning of the month may trigger a short-term rebound, but demand support and National Day stocking efforts will provide limited support, maintaining a bearish outlook in the long term. 5. Eggs: Maintain a bearish outlook. Open interest is higher than during the same period but has recently declined. Long-term contracts are trading at high premiums, making them expensive. Long-term supply continues to increase, but peak season demand has not boosted expectations, leading to weak spot prices.
