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2025-09-15 17:16:28
[Global Foreign Exchange Market Amidst the French Ratings Storm: Central Bank Decisions and the Bull-Bear Game] ⑴ France's credit rating downgrade has put the euro under short-term pressure, but the market appears to have priced in much of the negative news. Net long positions in the euro against the US dollar remain near a two-year high of $18.4 billion, demonstrating investor confidence in the euro's resilience. ⑵ The increasingly pronounced policy divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve has fueled the euro's rise against the US dollar. Institutional analysts predict the euro will reach 1.2000 by year-end, but it will still need to break through the 1.1500 to 1.1800 trading range in the short term. ⑶ This week, market focus will be on a series of central bank meetings, particularly the Fed's expected rate cuts. Money markets generally expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points and are closely watching its rate forecasts and future policy guidance. Any unexpectedly dovish signals could trigger foreign exchange market volatility. ⑷ Despite lackluster US economic data, the US dollar index fell slightly, reflecting market expectations of relative strength in other currencies. Meanwhile, the British pound rose to a one-month high against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen fell slightly, reflecting the divergent performance of different currencies in the current macroeconomic environment. ⑸ The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week. The market will focus on the Bank of England's plan to reduce its balance sheet and the Bank of Japan's signal on future interest rate hikes. These factors will affect the trend of their respective currencies.
