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2025-09-15 17:26:46
[Whispering Chilly Winds, Undercurrents of LNG: Intensifying Competition in the European Natural Gas Market] ⑴ Wholesale natural gas prices in continental Europe retreated slightly at the start of this week, reflecting ample supply and demand dampened by mild weather. Natural gas futures prices in both the Netherlands and the UK declined, with the Dutch TTF benchmark near-month contract falling to €32.19/MWh, or approximately $11.07/MMBtu. UK prices also declined. ⑵ Despite current easing market sentiment, analysts indicate signs of tightening natural gas supply later this week. For example, planned maintenance will begin at the Emden receiving terminal in Germany on Thursday, while wind power generation is expected to decline, boosting natural gas demand for power generation. ⑶ Overall, Europe's current 80% natural gas inventory level, continued robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) arrivals, and relatively mild weather forecasts all provided support for this week's downward trend in natural gas prices. However, geopolitical factors, particularly potential sanctions on Russian LNG exports, pose significant upside risks. 4. It is worth noting that a vessel from Russia's Yamal LNG project unloaded its cargo at the port on September 14th. This not only impacted global LNG prices but also indirectly posed competition to US LNG. The US has indicated the possibility of imposing new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries jointly halt purchases of Russian oil and take similar measures. This statement has undoubtedly added uncertainty to the market.
