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2025-09-15 17:32:30
[Government Bond Auctions Under Pressure, Undercurrents in European Asset Pricing] ⑴ The results of Germany's 12-month short-term government bond auction showed an average yield of 1.938%, higher than the previous value of 1.908%, indicating market concerns about rising short-term financing costs. The subscription ratio fell to 2.6, far lower than the previous value of 3.8, indicating a significant weakening of investor demand and a possible shift in market sentiment. ⑵ The auction results corroborate recent market data, indicating that the overall trading environment in Europe is undergoing subtle changes. While stable supply and weak demand are the direct cause of the current decline in European natural gas prices, potential geopolitical risks, such as market concerns sparked by Trump's tariff rhetoric and potential sanctions developments, have sown uncertainty in asset pricing. ⑶ It is worth noting that the market is reassessing policy direction. Some institutions have suggested that given the sharp slowdown in US labor market momentum, the Federal Reserve may need to implement a 50 basis point interest rate cut, rather than the 25 basis points generally expected by the market. If this prediction comes true, it will have a profound impact on global financial markets, especially exchange rate and volatility markets, and may rekindle the demand for volatility in the foreign exchange options market.
