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2025-09-15 18:45:52
[Dollar short positions are gathering momentum, and a trillion-dollar imbalance could trigger a major wave] ⑴ Market data shows that as of the week of September 9, speculators in the international currency market had increased their net short position in the US dollar to $5.71 billion, significantly higher than the previous week's $3.48 billion, indicating accumulating dollar weakness. ⑵ Although the US dollar has recently stabilized, its previous record-breaking decline suggests it remains in a bear market trend, and the market generally expects it to face further depreciation pressure. ⑶ The current level of US dollar short positions is far from the peak of $18.63 billion in June 2025, indicating that speculators have not yet fully exited the market and buying support is insufficient, leaving ample room for the US dollar to fall, potentially ushering in a new round of decline. ⑷ Weak employment data provides the Federal Reserve with room for more aggressive interest rate cuts, which will further weaken the US dollar's yield advantage and increase its downside risks.
