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2025-09-15 18:53:12
[Euro Under Pressure! France's Rating Downgrade Triggers Risk Aversion, US Dollar Index Shows Weakness] ⑴ On Monday, the euro fell slightly by 0.19% against the US dollar, dragged down by the downgrade of France's sovereign rating. This rating adjustment has heightened investor concerns about the Eurozone and may trigger a round of risk aversion. ⑵ Meanwhile, the US dollar fell slightly by 0.22% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.43% against the US dollar and the Australian dollar rose by 0.17% against the US dollar, demonstrating a divergence in investor risk appetite across currencies ahead of the crucial Federal Reserve meeting. ⑶ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting, and this expectation is affecting the dollar's appeal. Institutional analysts point out that if the Fed's rate cuts exceed expectations, the US dollar may face a more significant reaction. ⑷ Although the US dollar index has stabilized since its record drop at the beginning of the year, speculative short positions have not yet accumulated to a level sufficient to prevent further declines in the coming weeks or months. Data shows that as of the week of September 9, net short positions in the US dollar held by speculators in the international currency market rose to $5.71 billion, but remained well below the peak of $18.63 billion in June 2025. (5) Economic data also provides room for the US dollar to fall. Recent weak employment data has created the possibility of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further weaken the US dollar's yield advantage and continue its downward trend.
