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2025-09-15 19:29:32
[Data Forecast: Brazilian Economists Slightly Adjust Inflation, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Forecasts] ⑴ A Central Bank of Brazil survey revealed that economists generally lowered their forecast for the 2025 IPCA annual inflation index, from 4.85% to 4.83%. Despite this, the inflation forecast for 2026 remained unchanged at 4.30%, indicating a stable outlook on medium-term inflation. ⑵ Regarding interest rates, the SELIC rate forecast for the end of 2025 remained unchanged at 15.00%, but the forecast for the end of 2026 was slightly lowered from 12.50% to 12.38%, potentially reflecting cautious optimism about the future direction of monetary policy. ⑶ Regarding GDP growth, the 2025 forecast was slightly lowered from 2.16% to 2.16%, while the 2026 forecast was lowered from 1.85% to 1.80%, indicating slight concerns about future economic growth momentum. ⑷ In terms of exchange rates, the expected exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the US dollar at the end of 2025 was slightly adjusted from 5.55 to 5.50, while the forecast for the end of 2026 remained unchanged at 5.60, which shows that the market is slightly optimistic about the short-term trend of the real, but holds a stable view on the long-term trend.
