Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-09-15 19:32:19
[Market Volatility Intensifies: Multiple Gameplay Amidst the Fed's Decision, Sovereign Ratings, and Data Storm] ⑴ This week's market focus will be on the Federal Funds rate meeting. While the consensus is for a 25 basis point cut, there are dissenting voices, with three or more members potentially favoring a 50 basis point cut or even holding the rate steady. The key will be the "dot plot"'s projections for the number of rate cuts in 2025. If the market is pricing in three cuts, it could offer a sell-on-the-rise opportunity, while if it anticipates two cuts, it could provide a buying opportunity. ⑵ Following the French sovereign rating downgrade, while the market has priced in some of the negative impact, the ratings reviews by Moody's and S&P are still on the horizon, potentially triggering renewed market volatility and putting pressure on long-term bond yields in particular. Tuesday's US August retail sales data will serve as a gauge of consumer spending power, while the results of the 20-year Treasury bond auction this afternoon will also be worth watching. ⑶ While this week's data storm centers around the Fed's policy announcement, the data surrounding it also poses risks. Tuesday's retail sales data and 20-year Treasury auction, as well as Thursday's unemployment benefits data and 10-year TIPS auction, could all impact market sentiment. Technically, the 10-year Treasury yield is likely to fluctuate between 4.08% and 4.04%, while the 2-year Treasury yield is likely to face selling pressure around 3.50%. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff rhetoric continues to fuel market concerns, particularly as the impact of tariffs implemented earlier in August becomes apparent. The New York Fed's August manufacturing survey is expected to show a decline in the business activity index from 11.9 to 5.0, indicating signs of cost pressures and slowing economic activity.
